The global economy need to be out of the shadow of the financial crisis time, the international fertilizer market downturn trend of short-term die hard. China's fertilizer market, the strong rebound in the short term, out of "V" shape of the market likely to be smaller.

In mid-June, Shandong, Hebei and other places out of a wave of ex-factory price of urea rebound in prices, but the rise such as a flash in the pan. A telephone interview, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other distributors, it is generally felt that the short term the price of fertilizer is difficult out of "V" shaped a strong rebound in prices, while at the bottom of oscillation in a period of time, and then at home and abroad with the gradual improvement of economic situation pick-up, showing a "U"-shaped market reversal.
Macro-economic impact of fertilizer City
The first half, China's fertilizer market, or by the end of the tie of the global financial crisis. The end of last year, domestic cotton, peanuts, fruits and other cash crops, when compared with the highest prices, fell by half during the first half of the farmers when the planting of these crops, chemical fertilizers and pesticides at high prices, many farmers are running at a deficit, causing economic losses.
At present, China's economy despite signs of warmer, but still can not be optimistic about the prospect of depending on. "In April showed that China's economic operations, from the second half of last year's economic downturn to contain the initial trend, the effectiveness of the centralpackage. But the world economic situation is still grim, the Chinese economy is still going through a difficult period." Chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics Yao Jingyuan said.
"China's exports depend on external market situation, when warmer." State Council Development Research Center of Foreign Economic Research Department, said Zhang Ji, "The recent deterioration in the U.S. economy had slowed down the momentum of signs, but Europe and the United States and Japanese economies are likely to be a section at the bottom of oscillation time, the global economy is still going through a difficult period. "
Economic situation at home and abroad, Finance and Securities Research, Peking University, director of the Centersaid, "China's economy is likely out of 'U' shaped reversal."
International City, picked up a slow fat
China's economy depends too much, leading to a large extent, rely on the domestic economy pick up the international market. This is the situation of China's fertilizer market is quite similar. At present, China's self-sufficiency in addition to inadequate potassium, urea and compound fertilizer over-reliance on the international market to digest. However, in the global economy is still rather difficult background, the international fertilizer market worrisome.
At present, the international mainstream market, 64% diammonium FOB 300 U.S. dollars / ton, equivalent to 1900 yuan domestic / tons, it has fallen below production costs, but the international market, the transaction is not active. Diammonium, such as in the United States to be less than the main production of domestic circumstances, are pinning hopes on exports, a number of international suppliers that compete with China will not give up. International fertilizer market, price wars break out at any moment, when the export diammonium difficult.
Similarly the international urea market downturn and increasing competition. Co., Ltd. of nitrogen fertilizers in the Division Deputy General Manager Xu Ren said: "in the international crude oil and natural gas prices relatively low, the Middle East, the lowest cost of urea production, and production is increasing, and has become a strong urea manufacturers opponent. in accordance with international professional journal of chemical fertilizers and the forecast analysis of the third quarter of 2009, the international market price of urea rose substantially difficult situation, China's urea export situation is still hard to be optimistic. "
China Sulfuric Acid Industry Associationthat "the world situation and the slow recovery of fertilizer market." Downturn in the international market, even if the tariff is no longer hinder the exports, China is also difficult to access the export of chemical fertilizers.
Pick-up in the domestic market disruption
"At present, fertilizer factories are having a lack of confidence. First half of this year to reduce farm inputs, resulting in a significant drop in fertilizer sales. Farmers confidence to transfer to the agricultural sales as a result, they dare not rashly purchase, the whole chemical fertilizer market is in a wait-and-see in. "Xianghe Hebei Agricultural Service Center, City Manager, said Liu Changqing.
Hebei Cangzhou Dahua Group Sales Office, Deputy Director of Kai Chang million for the second half of urea deep concern about the market situation, he said, "Although the country plans to export urea extended by one month off-season time, but currently there is no export of urea to help, even in the absence of tariffs, is also difficulties in the export of urea, not to mention the low season there are 10% of the export tariffs. At present a large number of urea in the domestic market crowded, making the domestic market to increase competition in urea. If the second half of the year is still no improvement in the export of urea, urea market will face serious crisis. "
It is projected that in 2009, urea production capacity 10 million tons of surplus, a surplus of six million tons of DAP. And the existence of a large number of potassium balance of last year, fully able to meet domestic demand. The second half of next year or even in addition to China's fertilizer market rebound season, the overall oscillation pattern will remain low.
Fat City show "U"-shaped trend
Most likely as a result of China's macroeconomic out of "U"-shaped reversal, and the chemical fertilizer market trends and is closely related to the economic situation at home and abroad. China's fertilizer market is likely to rebound as the economy, showing a "U"-shaped trend.
"This is a global financial crisis since the Great Depression in 1930, the most serious economic recession. Comprehensive global economic rebound in the short term, out of 'v' shape are less likely to rebound. China's economy will be at the bottom of oscillation in a period of time, and then gradually rising out of "U"-shaped reversal. "reporter in the state organs, the economic situation of young knowledge series of lectures on domestic heard a well-known economist said.
The impact of financial crisis, the spread of agricultural prices, thereby affecting the farmers in chemical fertilizer. China Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association, vice chairman and secretary-general Liu Shulan that "by the financial crisis, wage income of farmers declined, resulting in decline in the purchasing power of farmers, resulting in fertilizer demand."
  From a macro-economic situation of the city and fertilizer, the fertilizer market in China become "U"-shaped trend, which means that prices of fertilizer over a period of time to maintain the low oscillation. Therefore, the domestic fertilizer production and distribution companies should do a good job in preparation to fight a protracted war, and actively take steps to deal with the current difficult period. (Lu-shun)