Domestic demand: At present, most areas in the off-season fertilizer away from the next quarter of wheat base fertilizer is still more than in January, so time is not high demand for domestic farm should be normal. And because the past two years, subject to large environmental impact, China's agricultural system and heavy losses. At this point, unpredictable Quotes Change is not easy to end dealer inventory, the provinces are also a large agricultural companies buy more cautious, the market outlook, lack of confidence. Of production enterprises, the cost of inversion is not that difficult problem shipments can not be effectively addressed. Moreover, the demand for wheat base fertilizer of urea more limited fat a relatively shorter period rebound weaker intensity. Fertilizer loss due to price advantage, many domestic companies were forced to stop production because of the cost of inversion, only some of the brands are still under low-load production, overall output compared to previous years, showing a marked decline in trends, the demand for urea is not wholly a considerate person. With the recovery of domestic related industries, led to the procurement of industrial urea enthusiasm, however, this part of the demand, compared with the overall market demand is still regarded as drop in the bucket. At this stage can be described as the domestic demand for urea is low, the intensity of price support is weak, therefore, rely solely on the domestic market mediation, and business is difficult to pick up.
　　Export disruption: August 2 ~ 3 weeks, the international price of urea t fallen 10 to 20 U.S. dollars, China's exports increased resistance, focusing on export enterprises almost no new contract was signed, mainly because it hard to accept less than the domestic sales of domestic export prices. At this point, arriving from Southeast Asian countries also declined in price, individual contracts had been terminated early, at present to carry out pre-contract-based, probably can be maintained until early September. Due to exports, trade in the early off-season before the end of the individual bonded inventory programs have gradually disappeared, and only part of the production company was forced itself can not store, are still shipped to the port, while the port cargo does not go smoothly, there is additional cost of these companies outside Hong Kong used cars direct to take.
　　Technological transformation: energy-saving emission reduction is currently placed in front of the main tasks of urea enterprise, from the perspective of market competition, post-high-energy consuming, high cost and high-polluting enterprises is bound to be eliminated. Therefore, the importance of technological transformation will be particularly prominent. The cost of production must be a continuous compression, "double-edged sword," on the one hand to create profits for themselves, on the other hand also contributed to the decline in the domestic overall price. This process is just like "rising in tandem with" On the contrary, when the water come down, the ship will follow lower.
　　Enterprise Maintenance: Due to the current sluggish trends in reproduction of urea market, many enterprises will choose or stop production technical innovation, or stop watch, this, this part of the reduction in capacity may become the key to the price stabilized. The author believes that early in September, the North will be business mainstream ex-factory price 1,450 yuan / ton, downstream distributors will remain still wait and see attitude will not be easy to purchase. The small and medium agricultural as well as the individual's role in the psychological follow suit, it is also not too much to buy. Therefore, the majority of urea enterprises will stop production in early September selection. There are two reasons: first, to avoid a lot of money being unmarketable products contain, preserve their strength, to avoid risks; 2, select the market is the most depressed time to conduct scheduled maintenance. Choose cut-off enterprises in the shutdown process, the observed Quotes direction, grasp the timing to resume production. Therefore, the overall capacity in the domestic context to reduce the domestic price of urea fell space should be relatively limited.
　　Monopolization of the market: Recently, a variety of conditions that enterprises around the world more or less the existence of monopolistic mentality in the Northeast as an example: Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces, large capacity large-scale enterprises, in order to protect their own sales territories are not affected, and timely attention to Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places of the ex-factory price of urea in order to develop their own prices. The Northeast market, mainly due to large amount of annual fertilizer requirement, will begin in late September in previous years, Dan Chu, Shandong and other places low season, the enterprises will be sent to the northeast region outside of urea sales. At this point, the purpose of the Northeast enterprise price adjustment is to weaken the provinces on the price advantage of urea to prevent the goods from other provinces into the local market. Such action will curb the national high capacity areas, making further narrow the differences across regions. Objectively speaking, such interaction is the bearish market outlook, lower prices.
　　Above from domestic demand, exports, stop production, technical innovation, monopolies in these five areas a simple analysis of urea in the current market, I feel bad factors which are more stable even if the price factor is based on domestic prices fell to a certain degree of support . (Yang Lu Yi)