"10. 1" before and after China's coal market supply and demand more relaxed, and coal prices are moderating. Industry experts estimate that the recent significant volatility in China's coal demand is unlikely, but in demand, production, security, driven by seasonal factors such as the fourth quarter, coal or higher.
Data show that coal consumption in China's major upstream and downstream industries, coal consumption accounted for 70% of the thermal power industry steadily warmer, the cumulative year on year decline narrowed down. From January to August this year, the national total thermal capacity of 1.8749 trillion degrees, down 1.5%; 321.9 billion over the same period total degree of hydro-electric power, an increase of 11.8%, hydropower development and further inhibit the growth of thermal power. In addition, as China's economy gradually improved, the main coal consumption industries such as electricity, steel, cement and other downstream products, there is a certain rate of yield increase. 1-August which produced 44.08 million tons of steel, up 10.4%; 10.2777 million tons of cement production, an increase of 17.2%; fertilizer industry achieved 43.81 million tons, an increase of 10.6%.
Four factors are driving the rise in coal prices
China Coal Market Network marketing experts LI Chao-lin said, "10.1" before and after, subject to various objective and subjective factors, the national coal market as a whole remained stable posture, there are still four factors that drive up coal prices.
First, demand-side factors. LI Chao-lin said that as the domestic economy started to recover, the economy began to accelerate the pace of development of energy, especially the increasing demand for coal, but after shutting down small coal mines in Shanxi Province carried out the activities to some extent inhibited the output of coal, resulting in some areas, part of the coal, some periods of tight coal supply. With coal, for example, in August daily average electricity coal consumption continued to rise, coal stocks fell slightly.
China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association released statistics also confirm this point. It is reported that in August of this year, the National generating capacity of the completion of 350.971 billion kwh, an increase of 8.34%, of which thermal power completed 271.965 billion kwh, an increase of 9.75%. Entered in August, further growth in coal consumption, stocks gradually declining. August Supplying power coal supply 61.86 million tons, 1.996 million tons coal supply day, down 287,000 tons, down 12.58%; Coal 64.27 million tons, 2.073 million tons daily coal consumption, up 6.5 million tons, up 3.24%; inventory reduction by the end of July compared with 2.01 million tons. To 8 the end of the nation's major port of stored coal to 13.67 million tons, 1.35 million tons from last month to reduce the end, 5.96 million tons less than a year.
Second, the factors of production. LI Chao-lin said that as the coal market as a whole this year, excess capacity in order to sell an effective capacity of coal production quotas can only be caused by normal supply and demand balance to ensure a stable supply of coal market in the event of unusual factors, the relative lack of effective capacity of the will appear, the market appears a regional supply capacity, the decline stage is inevitable. It is understood that due to corporate mergers and restructuring of the coal in Shanxi Province, coal resource integration, a number of small coal mines have been achieved although the restructuring, but because of compensation disputes, to resume production, mine does not end the work of transformation, some new re-mine does not have the safety in production capacity, resulting in a large number of small coal mines can not be put into normal production, coal production capacity effectively a phased decline in the situation of the coal supply and demand balance has been broken, and coal production relative to demand, seemed small.
Third, security considerations. Although there is no focus on this year's outbreak of large-scale gas explosions, but the gas explosion in Pingdingshan 9.8 after the accident related departments intensified rectification and improvement, a large number of small coal mines are shut down, coal and less productive. Due to suspend production for rectification, Henan Pingdingshan, Zhengzhou, Sanmenxia, Xuchang, Jiaozuo, Luoyang and other small coal mines are concentrated coal-producing region, a small township coal mines would not be able to play a role in production, coal output will undoubtedly there was a substantial decline, the local coal market would be shutdown because of the small coal mines which change the basic balance between coal supply and demand pattern will be broken, regional, stage tight coal supply situation will be formed. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Guizhou, Shandong and other coal-producing provinces and regions also carried out the rectification campaign, increased the small coal mines and non-mine the intensity of rectification, coal production capacity of a certain degree of decline.
4 is a seasonal factor. In the third quarter in most parts of the country in coal consumption off-season, but because the temperature in most parts of northern China began to decline, in order to protect the winter heating of industrial production and living, has entered the period of the winter storage of coal, a large number of stocks from the market to purchase coal, coal demand has begun increase in coal market became active.
Obvious signs of rising coal prices have been
In fact, as a national market leader in Qinhuangdao Port coal price of coal in the began in mid-September was up. According to report, in mid-September Qinhuangdao Port coal pricing generally rose 5-10 yuan per tonne, breaking the past two months Qinhuangdao Port coal price balance. In response, the industry pointed out that close to National Day, the coal supply has been tightened, inventories fell, and the recent demand for electricity continued to grow two factors at a time when coal prices hike. Small coal mines in Shanxi and the resumption of production is far below the coal market is expected to further support the right direction.
Orient Securities analyst Wang Shuai chief coal industry pointed out that on the eve of National Day, the national coal production safety supervision strengthened, which led to some tightening of the supply of coal. At the same time, as the economy pick up, the national electricity consumption continued to rise, the demand for coal continues to grow. Dual factors on the formation of coal and municipal support.
Recently, the Qinhuangdao Port coal price has been on an upward trend of coal prices in September are still hovering around 600 yuan per ton, "11" after the Qinhuangdao Port coal price has been steadily stood for more than 600 yuan per ton. LI Chao-lin said that as part of the provinces and municipalities began to winter storage of coal, so Qinhuangdao port coal inventory reduction, which pulled the coal. However, the coal industry researcher at Great Wall Securities Lai Li Hui said that brokers did not rule out coal through coal prices stable during the National Day, October, November period of the winter heating coal reserves of the forthcoming opportunity to hype the possibility of hoarding of coal.
Although the signs of coal has significantly increased, but the Chinese Coal Resources Network commentator Lee Jung believed that the fourth quarter of China's coal supply will remain sufficient. LI Ting said that with the large-scale coal bases in recent years to speed up construction of rapid growth in fixed asset investment in the coal industry, a large number of large-scale modern and efficient mine put into operation, new capacity in the rapid growth in China's coal. Affected by this, this year, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Anhui, Xinjiang's coal production continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum, the integration of coal resources in Shanxi Province in the first half to increase the intensity of the situation, it is the rapid output of raw coal in these areas growth to meet the gradual recovery of domestic demand for coal. Expected future output of raw coal in these areas will continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum.
"National Day after the resumption of small coal mines will increase production efforts. In addition, coal production in Shanxi Province is expected to continue to maintain growth." Lee Jung said the one hand, integration of resources at present the vast majority of the mine in Shanxi Province has signed integration agreements, and have moved into the actual operation phase, the majority of small coal mines were integrated gradually achieve the transition of production; the other hand, Shanxi Province in order to achieve full-year GDP growth of 8% target, will also increase the mine to resume work to promote resumption of production, and promote coal production increased steadily. "At present, the international market supply and demand environment remains relatively relaxed in the next few months, coal imports will continue to maintain a high level, which will further adequate coal supplies the domestic market." LI Chao-lin said. (Bi-rong)