National Day, the urea prices began to show a modest rise. Analysts said the rising price of urea was due to short storage needs and expectations rising costs driven by the dual factors, recently urea prices are likely to continue to rise, but not much room.
Data provided by Jiangnan Securities, October 29 the latest price of urea, 1,600 yuan / ton, and the beginning of 1500 yuan / ton increase compared to 100 yuan / ton. Jiangnan Securities researcher Lu-wide rule that the price range is different for different products, some tens of dollars, some even higher. Urea prices driven by demand for storage and light a certain extent.
According to Dan Chu fertilizer planning, this year's total light reservoir 16 million tons, of which 8 million tons of urea accounts for about 90 more than Chengchuqiye. Dan Chu businesses can get state subsidies. In the case of urea prices will fall, companies will be short storage there is a risk, but right now the price of urea has been at the bottom of the lower risk of enterprise storage light, enthusiasm is also relatively high. It is reported that this year's buyout short form of the enterprise storage grow, especially small and medium dealers. However, Cheng Chu provinces of Agricultural Materials Company has not yet carried out a large number of purchases.
Analysts said the recent coal price increases, natural gas prices there are expected cost-push is another important factor in urea prices. It has been learned recently of major agricultural groups may have a greater procurement actions, if true price movements will play a certain role in promoting.
Although prices rose moderately, but the downstream demand is not good, not a large number of stocking dealers is expected to increase space is limited. Analysts said a serious surplus of urea production, which play a rebound in commodity prices inhibition. Data show that 1-September net off accumulated output of 21.953 million tons of urea, more than the apparent consumption of 968,000 tons. In addition to March, the rest of the month of production in excess of apparent consumption. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association expects annual domestic urea production may exceed 60 million tons, an oversupply of about 1400-1500 million tons.
In addition, the export situation is not good. Industry sources said the export tariff cut in November to look at current international prices, 10% tariffs on urea export orders, small particles under the transaction price being no more than 1550 yuan / ton, the export volume will not be much. Inhibit the export of a more fundamental factor is that international demand is not wang. (Guxin)