Industry experts: 2010 international coal market prices will be substantially higher
Time：2009-12-15 Read：2204second
By the end of November, Guangzhou and Hong Kong is still a busy coal terminal, apart from the northern Qinhuangdao, Huanghua ports of coal, a vessel from Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, traveled far away from the import of coal was also ordered to perform unloading process. A coal trader to the China Securities newspaper journalist to reveal, in addition to the above-mentioned traditional coal exporting country, from North America and other places have begun a number of coal mines coal for export to China and report out a very attractive price.
In 2009, China completed from a net exporter to net importer of coal, the change during the year exceeded 1 million tonnes of imports, the international coal market, buyers are alarmed, but also the international market, sellers who rejoice. It is no exaggeration to say that in 2009 the purchasing power of the Chinese market from the international coal market saved a lot of sellers.
However, industry experts predict that by 2010, international coal market prices will be substantially higher, due to abundant domestic resources, "emboldened" the Chinese coal enterprises to the international coal market demand, is clearly affected by price-driven rather than demand-oriented, and once imported coal prices for domestic coal prices are no longer an advantage, China's imports will have fallen significantly.
Volume of imports in 2009 hit days
From the beginning of this year, China's coal imports are displayed strong growth momentum. February China imported 4.88 million tons of coal, an increase of 73%, hitting 22-month high. In June of this year, China's coal imports reached 16.07 million tons, the highest single-month import record. October domestic import 11.1 million tons of coal, 2.2 times more than same period last year. China's coal imports 1-10 months to reach 96.83 million tons total, annual imports of 100 million tons-breaking suspense no longer.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, the economic slowdown of the rapid decline in world energy demand, the international coal price highs. Statistics show that as of March 19 this year, BJ Australian thermal coal spot prices from July 3, 2008 high of 190.95 U.S. dollars / ton, down to 61.5 U.S. dollars / ton. As the integration of domestic resources in Shanxi limited supply, the overall balance of supply and demand, coal is far lower rate than the international market.
International and domestic coal, the existence of price differences, so that imports of coal in 2009, more attractive. Insiders expect full-year coal import volume will reach 1.1 million tons, an increase of more than 1.7-fold. But from January to October, total exports of 18.9 million tons of coal and the annual export volume may be about 23 million tons. Full-year net imports of coal is expected to reach 87 million tons. In contrast, in 2008 the year of China's coal is also a net exporter of 5.03 million tons.
The world's largest coal producer - Peabody Energy Corporation (Peabody Energy Co.) Chief Executive Officer Greg Boyce and even the future of China's imports also full of expectations. He believes that China into a net importer of coal is a structural change, and is expected to the rapid growth of China's coal demand will continue for some time. China's metallurgical coal and steam coal imports will continue to grow strongly, because of China's demand for electricity and high-quality coal on the rise. Peabody Energy in the next five years, its Australian coal production doubled to produce 36 million tons.
However, the domestic coal trade experts are not optimistic about China's imports Huang Teng-coal afternoon. He said that this year a large number of imports is a special case, China should not be a coal importing countries, if China's coal demand up to the international market, it is not afford to pay for. Even if the import volume this year, more than 100 million tons, with annual demand of nearly 30 million tonnes compared to also account for only 3%.
Insiders said that China's import of coal is not enough domestic coal use, but by the price-led. Namely: international prices significantly lower than the domestic, imported coal prices are competitive, the domestic coal enterprises will choose to import; and when the international coal price increases, given the freight and domestic prices were flat or even slightly higher, the domestic enterprises will be very difficult to think Power to "toss" imported coal.
Significant downturn in imports next year,
Huang Teng seems strong this year, China's coal imports have been destined to the international coal prices rose the next year, followed next year, China is bound to be the relative volume of coal imports this year has dropped significantly.
According to industry analysis, the major coal exporting countries in 2010 by the capacity bottlenecks and productivity effects of export growth is not, and the main importing country's economic recovery, particularly in India new coal import demand in the next two years older, which makes the world's coal resources contention, especially coking coal resources, competition more intense.
"Next year the international coal market is the emergence of a phenomenon different from the past, that is, not only to coal sellers want the price to rise, the buyer will be a major international initiative to improve the offer." Huang Teng's analysis of the China Securities Journal, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and other Asian coal market The main buyers at the national or local areas due to a lack of coal resources, and thus for them to ensure that imports is a priority, particularly in the world economy next year, will restore a certain degree of growth, countries and regions are inseparable from the economic recovery of energy support.
"If there is no volume, prices are cheap for them, to no avail." Huang Teng said. The Ultra-100 million tons this year, Chinese imports in one fell swoop ate one-eighth of the international coal trade, which means that Japan and South Korea to ensure that import volumes, the first impulse to curb Chinese imports, the most effective way is to to raise prices.
In fact, this year, the continued high level of China's coal imports have driven international coal prices. According to the latest data GlobalCoal, November 27 Australia Newcastle Port thermal coal price reached 81 U.S. dollars / ton, while the years have been as low as 60 U.S. dollars this price / tons. With the arrival of the winter peak coal, domestic and international coal prices will continue upward trend.
According to insiders, the international market next year, coal supply may not be incremental. Vietnam, Indonesia and other coal exporting countries in the contraction of coal export policy, Australia and South Africa, there may be some incremental. Given the international availability of coal resources are limited, if the other countries in the Asia-Pacific economic recovery next year, while China continues to maintain a large number of imports, the international coal price will be significantly higher.
According to Huang Teng forecast a long 2010 International Society of coal prices, coking coal and fat coal from this year's 129 U.S. dollars / ton up to 180 U.S. dollars / ton, up 40%; coking coal blending from 115 U.S. dollars / ton up to 150 U.S. dollars / ton, up 30%; injection of coal will be 90 U.S. dollars / ton up to 115 U.S. dollars / ton, or 28%; steam coal from 71 U.S. dollars / ton up to 86 U.S. dollars / ton, or 20 %.
Wong, Teng said that it is precisely because of coal prices and the scramble for resources is expected to strongly in previous years, until 3,4 month in order to determine the contract price of international long association, this is likely this year or early next year will be determined. Once in Japan, Korea and other "large" number of locks a long association, and the remaining amount of the cash market will be very small.
As for the spot market price, Huang Teng said that China mainly depends on the international coal demand. If China imports a large quantity, the price will rise, China's import less, the likelihood of a small rise. I understand that there are analysts now predict next year's spot price of steam coal will reach 100 U.S. dollars / tons, coking coal prices will reach 200-250 U.S. dollars / ton.
The domestic contract or a more smoothly
Transportation of coal production in 2010 summarizes the work required to interface the contract commenced in turn, the National Development and Reform Commission is currently drafting next year's inter-provincial transportation of coal production guidance for the work required to interface and capacity allocation framework of the program, will be issued recently. It is reported that coal production this year, brought the need of convergence tend to take a online summary of the way, the traditional "contract summary will" very likely no longer be held, which will help complete the market-oriented coal.
Industry analysts believe that, although the NDRC said that coal is no longer interfere with contract negotiations, but the contract was signed in 2010 should be better than this year's success. Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, according to sources, coal and electricity are now both sides have a basic consensus that the contract price of coal will certainly rise, but there are still differences on the rise. A number of brokerage, research fellow of coal in 2010, a contract coal price increase will be 5% -10%.
Great Wall Securities coal industry researcher is expected in 2010, the output of the nation's major coal-producing provinces and regions in increments between 2-2.5 million tons, of which the supply of incremental coal coke million tons in 2000; while the main consideration in the downstream thermal power, steel, cement, and chemical (N) growth, it is expected in 2010, the total consumption of coal between 29.4-30.2 million tons year on year growth rate of 3% -6%, in increments of 0.9-1.7 million tons.
Golden State Securities analyst GONG Chinese coal industry believes that the import and export of coal supply and demand of domestic coal by 2010, the biggest variable. Downturn in 2009 due to international coal prices, the domestic coal import surges. In fact, this year China's coal imports into a number of foreign coal to continue to survive "life-saving straw." Huang Teng believes that if there is no Chinese companies year-round 100 million tons of imports, international coal prices would be "unthinkable." You can reference a data, the international crude oil prices this year, fell to 36.5 U.S. dollars / barrel.
However, downstream of the coal enterprises, this is not necessarily a bad thing. According to industry coal traders revealed that this year China has also attracted a large number of imports from Canada and the United States coal mines. The coal transport distance on the far edge of coal than Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam, coal, coal, and they have never had coal trade with China, in order to enter the Chinese market, they reported that out of a very competitive low prices.
When the domestic and international coal enterprises to take full competition, it will always be able to import coal as a coal company in the hands of a "brand" in international and domestic coal prices to find the dynamic balance at a lower cost. This may have caused the domestic price of coal up a certain constraint. (Li Yang Dan)
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