Shortage of natural gas prices lead to alcohol
Time：2010-01-04 Read：1757second
Industry data shows that since mid-November from methanol prices have started a wave of rising market, but the December 10 after a slight decline. Analysts believe that the short-term methanol prices will go through the consolidation phase, but may be around the Spring Festival there will be a fall.
Lack of gas caused up
Methanol for the recent price increases, analysts believe that this is mainly because the demand and supply can not keep up a sudden start. More closely associated with methanol downstream industry is dimethyl ether and formaldehyde. Changes in the weather caused transport difficulties and shortage of natural gas and LPG driven DME Quotes led to more positive downstream procurement. Analysts said the demand for DME turn for the better result in the lower reaches of methanol increased demand, the market to buy up not to buy down, the downstream demand for some of it is speculative traders.
Analysts said that as early prices are low, early in November the price of only 2040-2070 yuan / ton, at a cost line near the power shortage of production, inventories are relatively small. When demand starts when the supply can not keep up. In addition, coal, electricity prices raised the cost of methanol, which is supported by the formation of methanol prices.
Methanol is more mainly due to supply shortage, "gas shortage" led to a shortage of resources of natural gas methanol. Analysts said the CBI into December, the Northwest, Inner Mongolia, southwest, Henan and other areas of natural gas methanol production continued to decline, the volume of the initial estimated loss of 5 thousand tons.
The main short-term correction
Entered in December, the highest in East China methanol prices rose to 2800-2880 yuan / ton. However, at this price, the downstream firms have relatively high resistance. Decline in recent days the downstream demand, methanol prices slightly down, the current domestic mainstream quoted at 2,600 yuan / ton.
Analysts said that at present dimethyl ether, formaldehyde and the downstream demand is not very good, but a more adequate inventory. In addition, methanol prices rose a larger short-term, methanol doctrinal and downstream buyers see mood. However, from the perspective of methanol manufacturers, supply is still abundant, methanol prices fall conditions are not ripe. Methanol is currently relatively few manufacturers of inventory, while the downstream manufacturers of methanol stock only 2-3 days.
Methanol prices rise to some pre-shutdown of the plant gradually to re-drive, which became a factor in increasing market supply. If Dan Feng, Shanxi Orchid Chemicals 100,000 tons / year methanol plant commissioning was early December, in preparation for driving the enterprise initially expected products can be produced in late December.
However, the CBI analysts said the resumption of production equipment is mainly coal-to-methanol, but some companies still waiting to see, such as Shanxi plain Chemical 200,000 tons / year plant, Shandong Red Sun Ah Kam 100,000 tons / year plant, etc. , then the first device, taking into account gas, anaerobic conditions in December are expected imports of methanol and 11 were unchanged, as well as at the end of production equipment maintenance, methanol supply will not be a short-term negative factors affecting pricing.
For the future price trends, CBI analysts believe that, due to both good and bad factors that exist, in December and early January next year, the price of methanol will be the main consolidation. However, historical experience, both before and after the Spring Festival as dimethyl ether, formaldehyde off-season demand, which could have a negative impact on the price of methanol.
Some brokers said the researchers, from the long term, due to industry overcapacity more serious price increases will lead to increases in the supply, thereby suppressing the price of methanol prices should not be sustained. Statistics show that in 2008 the national capacity of 26.555 million tons of methanol is expected by 2010 the domestic production capacity of more than 30 million tons in 2005, 7.2 million tons to 4.2 times. (Guxin)
皖公网安备 34120002001531号