Chinese New Year Amid the endless sound of firecrackers in quietly through the U.S. crude oil seems to have felt this festive been rosy followed. Last week, crude oil futures in March, rose 5.68 U.S. dollars up to 7.7% close to 80 U.S. dollars / barrel to become self-October 16, 2009 when the weeks since the biggest weekly percentage rise in the concern that the price to stand firm on 80 U.S. dollars / barrel, while the domestic refined oil prices are also concerns about whether the price adjustment followed.
　　80 U.S. dollars needed to verify whether the firm
The Fed raised the discount rate last Friday the news of investors confidence in the prospects for economic recovery on a large increase in France's Total oil refinery strike in good order to achieve on the 4th row in New York crude oil rally to close at 79.81 U.S. dollars / barrel close to 80 U.S. dollars per barrel / barrel hit a five-week high. 18 after the bell that the Fed discount rate from 0.5% of the federal raised to 0.75% as investors worried about a time there will be more measures on delisting. However, on the 19th market to some extent the further interpretation that the Fed move reflects the growing recognition of the economic recovery in particular the capacity of the banking system to increase market sentiment lifted crude oil futures prices rose along. March crude oil futures closed up 0.75 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.95 percent to 79.81 U.S. dollars a barrel on January 14 the highest close since trading range of 77.76-79.95 U.S. dollars / barrel.
　　Ascribed to changes in investor sentiment as the dollar fell for dollar-denominated crude oil futures prices upward momentum. At the same time the festive period, crude oil and the stock market showed a high degree of relevance. Reflected in the stock market higher improvement in the global economy to make good a time as the world's oil-consuming nations - the United States, supported by strong heating demand forecasts high crude oil prices go.
　　Chinese New Year, former U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has said that the second half of this year, West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) average price is expected to 81 U.S. dollars / barrel before the year is expected to average 80 U.S. dollars / barrel. The first quarter of 2010 average price of WTI crude oil is 76.78 U.S. dollars / barrel WTI average price in 2011 is expected to 84 U.S. dollars / barrel in line with previous expectations. The forecast assumes that this year's U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.3% next year, growth of 2.5%. Meanwhile, EIA raised its 2010 growth forecasts for global oil demand because of China and other Asian countries demand. They will increase in 2010 global oil demand is expected to rise 120,000 barrels / day to 120 million barrels / day. Global oil demand in 2010 is expected to an annual rate of increase of 1.4% to 85.3 million barrels / day. Over the past two years, the global demand for crude oil are declining for the first time since 1983, declined for two consecutive years. The same time, OPEC will increase in 2010 global oil demand is expected to reduce by 1 million barrels / day to 81 million barrels / day of crude oil, said the biggest consumer the United States, the slow economic recovery.
　　However, the latest EIA report shows that as of February 12 the week U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the strategic crude oil reserves in the stock) than the previous week and 3.1 million barrels to 3.345 million barrels above the same period in previous years, the average stock range limit. Refinery capacity utilization rose 0.6 percentage points to 79.75%. In the past four weeks in the refinery capacity utilization has been hovering below the 80% level. Over the past two weeks time, the U.S. East Coast region experienced the cold weather and snowfall, but this kind of weather factors is almost unable to play the role of boosting the price of heating oil. In addition, in the past week the U.S. daily gasoline output by 37.9 million barrels a day to reduce gasoline imports also decreased by 45.9 million barrels a day so that investors in the future to reduce concerns about gasoline supplies increased to provide upward momentum for oil prices.
　　The current U.S. inventories of crude oil and petroleum products remained at a high level. Industry analysts believe that despite the MACD indicator disk show a reverse trend has emerged, but with the RSI indicators are in oversold zone KDJ lingering afternoon to stand firm on 80 U.S. dollars yet to be verified. View was also expressed that the NYMEX oil prices traded close to a high density area rebounded to around 84 U.S. dollars will continue to meet with resistance.
Domestic oil price adjustment window near the
　　For the Chinese New Year holiday period of rising crude oil prices would lead to a change in the domestic refined oil price concerns have also emerged.
Preganglionic international crude oil futures prices have "Shangcuanxiatiao" from the relative high of 82 U.S. dollars a barrel all the way down and break 70 dollar mark to make the market finished products from the rise in oil prices is expected to suddenly become a lowered expectations. According to the provisions of refined oil pricing mechanism when the international market of crude oil row 22 days moving average price changes more than 4% when adjusted domestic refined oil prices. National Development and Reform Commission the most recent price adjustment in the November 10, 2009 has been maintained for more than three months of this time span also created a new refined oil pricing mechanism, and since the highest on record.
　　Prior to 2009, the Chinese government in the whole in accordance with the new pricing mechanism for refined oil products had a total of 8 times price adjustment as "5 on 3 down" the State Development and Reform Commission in the calculation of the new pricing mechanism is for the whole society to save the 40 billion yuan. The international oil price reversal during the holiday makes the price adjustment occurs within the window again, close to which we will see. Industry analysts believe that inflation expectations in the case of a strong 2010, the State Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment frequency will be significantly lower than the 2009 adjusted rate also would be more noticeable reduction in 2009. Even if the price adjustment amount will be limited in the future are expected to be 150 -200 yuan / tons. (Zhang Ying)