May 25 Asian electronic trading hours, the international crude oil to new lows, the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude oil futures contract probe to 67.31 U.S. dollars a barrel. International oil prices hit from May 3 to 19 months after the high point of the way down, the cumulative drop of more than 25%. Market participants said that the European sovereign debt crisis is not finished, and the United States, crude oil and oil stocks are at 20 year high point, in the short term drop in crude oil is hard to end of the trip.
Greece shadow of the crisis is still
Since May, the commodities futures market suffered a series of negative attacks, the European debt crisis, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup traders fraud and error operation and so on, forced to follow the stock market commodities substantial adjustments.
Zhao Liang Hai Tong futures analyst told, "International Finance News" interview, said: "fall in oil prices driven primarily by two factors, from 89 to 75 U.S. dollars in the fall was mainly digested high inventory. While 75 U.S. dollars fell after the main by the negative impact of the debt crisis in Europe. "
Liu Xiao Hai permit futures analyst also to the "International Finance," told reporters: "At present, the European sovereign debt crisis has been stabilized, but not an end, and Spain to follow up the danger of state, that U.S. dollar against the euro will rise in the short term it will continue to pressure oil prices. "
May 24, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after consultation with the Spanish government issued a report that, due to weak private demand and the interaction of fiscal consolidation, especially if the promotion of competitiveness and growth of the reform is not bold, Spain's economy could stagnation, financial markets will further deteriorate, the government and private sector borrowing costs. IMF said that Spain should be on the job market, financial and banking sector restructuring to take "urgent and decisive action", the policy should aim to rebalance the economy. In the various departments and to take such a bold reform measures will have a synergistic effect.
In addition, Zhao Liang also pointed out that the German government restrictions on naked short selling of financial stocks and the euro ten bonds counterproductive measures on the market, the market has become more anxious, especially speculators, unable to hedge risk, only to sell the stock of action, making further lower the euro, the dollar index rose to a higher position, through the exchange rate indirectly affects the price of crude oil.
Analysts expect the European sovereign debt crisis will continue for some time in the future impact of oil prices, crude oil, the next key point and is 67 dollars a barrel.
Oil producing countries have been anxious
However, oil prices have made it part of the oil producing linear decline sit still. Qatar Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Energy Forum in Doha early on, said Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member countries need to maintain oil prices above 70 dollars a barrel to keep production capacity investment. He said that if oil prices fell below 70 dollars a barrel, energy companies will curb energy development, which is usually a critical point.
"70 dollars a barrel to 80 U.S. dollars a barrel has been recognized as a reasonable price range." Cho said.
70 dollars per barrel price of oil now being below the probe, and some oil enterprises have also given their own bottom line. World's fifth largest petrochemical companies in Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corporation (Sabic / Sabic) Chief Executive Officer Mohamad Mahdi recent meeting in the oil industry, said 65 dollars per barrel of oil for all oil-producing countries is still a reasonable price, but oil prices below 65 dollars for all oil-producing countries would be a "very negative" price.
However, the next OPEC oil ministers will be held until October, many analysts pointed out that if oil prices set below 70 dollars a barrel mark integer, held an emergency meeting to discuss oil production cuts will greatly enhance the possibility of . In addition, sources said, the recent Middle East crude oil exports have begun to slow down, some oil producers are increasing the intensity.
Long-term trend will remain higher
Recently, some statistics show that a lot of money being withdrawn from the crude oil futures, many investors worry whether the oil will continue to decline.
Indeed, from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the position data, such evidence is clear, the Fund held in the crude oil futures on a single number has been empty for 5 weeks increased from 20 April to 161 682 to 5 18 of 212 243. Liu Xiao said: "Speculators are the transfer of funds from risky assets to the non-risk assets, the majority of commodity futures funds have been underweight, only gold futures are more favored."
However, this does not mean that oil will bear this away. "Even if oil prices drop, room is not big." Cho said, "Although crude oil inventories at a high level, but as the U.S. summer, the arrival of the seasonal consumption of the market for crude oil products, particularly gasoline demand will gradually increase the consumption the next inventory is expected to gradually decline, to help stabilize oil prices up. "
Over the past 20 years, data show that in May the probability of each half of the crude oil price change, but in the fall time period, no major adjustment in May. The probability is higher than in June rose 60%. After the oil peak in summer, from August to September is the U.S. hurricane season, at the same time in previous years, "weather market" will be kicked off speculation, once the news of the hurricane affected oil operations, oil prices will be pulled.
Market participants stressed that the current U.S. economic indicators in a better recovery trend, China, India and other developing economies are also in a steady and rapid growth, increasing demand for crude oil, crude oil's strength is to be expected.
Barclays Capital analyst said that with the rapid improvement of crude oil fundamentals are expected to decline once the market panic, oil prices will be higher. (Zhang Jing Yi)