5.23, China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association Marketing Research Association will be held in Shanghai market analysis. From the oil, the sea-chemical, Shanxi Coal Group, Hubei Yihua, Shandong Luxi Group, Henan, heart to heart, Jiangsu Spirit Valley, sky, Guizhou Chitianhua, Chongqing Jian Feng nitrogen and more than 30 key business marketing attended the meeting. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, vice chairman of the Kong Xianglin, China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, Shu-Lan Liu, Vice Director of the meeting, deputy general manager of Shandong Luxi Chemical Group, China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association Marketing Research Association, Jiang Jitao chair. The meeting analyzed the second half of nitrogen fertilizer production and market situation and China's urea export situation in the second half and the second half of urea on how to stabilize the market and do domestic sales and exports and other issues carefully. After full discussion, reached the following consensus:
First, play the first half of low capacity, urea production and basically the same as last year
This year, drought and cold weather, delay caused by seasonal effects, urea prices continued downturn, many companies were forced to stop production overhaul, half the industry's operating rate is not high. Under nitrogen Association on May 19 survey, parking maintenance of urea 36 enterprises, total capacity 32,600 tons / day, accounting for 18.2% of effective capacity. Southwest of four large gas head Urea Plant (Yuntianhua, Lutianhua, Tin Wah, Sichuan-based) have all parking. According to association statistics, 1 in April this year, the national output of 18.42 million tons of urea, the average daily output of 153,000 tons of urea than the average 2009 level of 152,000 tons daily output increased by 0.6%. According to the current situation started estimates of urea production in the first half of this year essentially flat with last year.
Second, the gradual recovery of international market demand, the annual export volume will significantly increase urea
The current international market prices of urea, urea domestic port inventory high, and so the industry is lack of confidence in the second half of exports. After careful analysis of the participants that the second half of China's urea export is still more favorable factors, the first half of the international urea market downturn, to some extent reduced operating rates, reducing supply; Second, the international urea prices have been trading lower in FOB240 U.S. dollars / ton, and has, approaching or even below the bottom of the price a year earlier, the possibility of the late great prices; third major importer of urea inventories have dropped to the bottom line, coupled with poor agricultural production worldwide in the first half , in the second half will increase investment to ensure food security, urea demand will further enlarge. According to latest figures released by IFA, in the second half of urea import demand will gradually rebound in the third quarter is expected to reach 7.88 million tons, of which 1.3 million tons, India, Brazil, 770 thousand tons, the United States 740,000 tons, 600,000 tons, Thailand, Western Europe 70 tons. Fourth, the second half of the urea can be exported to lower tariffs window of a total of 5 months (July 1 ~ September 15, October 15 ~ December 31), even if the September 15 ~ October 15 exports limited, but still signing, can be said that almost half could be exported, which is very favorable for urea export. Taking all these factors, according to the first quarter, exports 1.2 million tons of urea level, the annual export volume up to 4.8 million tons.
Third, pressure nitrogen fertilizer production costs, business challenges
Association under nitrogen monitoring data show that 1 to April this year, nitrogen fertilizer price of anthracite firm due to the recent demand gradually enlarge and promote the coal price increase, to some extent makes up anthracite. Natural gas pipeline has been up fee 0.08 yuan / cubic meter. Recently the State Council to speed up the pace of reform of energy prices, gas prices are expected to adjust quickly, electricity price reform has also been put on the agenda, post-production costs of urea under pressure. If the urea prices continue to slump, business will face unprecedented difficulties, the whole industry will face serious challenges. Therefore, in this situation, enterprises should strengthen the joint, share the pain, it is necessary to consciously abide by "standard nitrogen fertilizer on the market competition order and self-discipline Convention," moderately reduced starting load for nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand balance, particularly in July should be reduce the maximum load, to ensure a smooth transition peak seasons, to prevent price fluctuations; Second, we must strive to standardize the market competition order, and resolutely put an end to below the manufacturing cost of sales; Third, we should actively explore the international urea markets, strengthen its largest export traders Joint and cooperation, make the second half of urea export work to alleviate the contradiction between domestic supply and demand; fourth is to gradually strengthen the network of sales and channel development, increase market control efforts, and actively safeguard the stability of nitrogen fertilizer market; five urea to slow down the pace of expansion, accelerate the transformation of economic development and optimizing product mix, and take different development routes. (Search peach)