This year, drought and cold weather, delay caused by seasonal effects, urea prices continued downturn, many companies were forced to stop production overhaul, half the industry's operating rate is not high. Under nitrogen Association on May 19 survey, parking maintenance of urea 36 enterprises, total capacity 32,600 tons / day, accounting for 18.2% of effective capacity. Southwest of four large gas head Urea Plant (Yuntianhua, Lutianhua, Tin Wah, Sichuan-based) have all parking. According to association statistics, 1-4 month national output 18.42 million tons of urea, the average daily output of 153,000 tons of urea than the average 2009 level of 152,000 tons daily output increased by 0.6%. According to the current situation started estimates of urea production in the first half of this year essentially flat with last year.
The current international market prices of urea, urea domestic port inventory high, and so the industry is lack of confidence in the second half of exports. After careful analysis of the participants that the second half of China's urea export is still more favorable factors, the first half of the international urea market downturn, to some extent reduced operating rates, reducing supply; Second, the international urea prices have been trading lower in FOB240 U.S. dollars / ton, and has, approaching or even below the bottom of the price a year earlier, the possibility of the late great prices; third major importer of urea inventories have dropped to the bottom line, coupled with poor agricultural production worldwide in the first half , in the second half will increase investment to ensure food security, urea demand will further enlarge. According to latest figures released by IFA, in the second half of urea import demand will gradually rebound in the third quarter is expected to reach 7.88 million tons, of which 1.3 million tons, India, Brazil, 770 thousand tons, the United States 740,000 tons, 600,000 tons, Thailand, Western Europe 70 tons. Fourth, the second half of the urea can be exported to lower tariffs window of a total of 5 months (July 1 - 9 15, October 15 -12 31), even if the Sept. 15 -10 15 Exports limited, but still signing, can be said that almost half could be exported, which is very favorable for urea export. Taking all these factors, in accordance with the export of urea in the first quarter's level of 1.2 million tons, the annual export volume up to 4.8 million tons.
Association under nitrogen monitoring data show that 1-4 months of this year the price of anthracite strong nitrogen, due to the recent demand gradually enlarge and promote the coal price increase, to some extent makes up anthracite. Natural gas pipeline has been up fee 0.08 yuan / cubic meter. The State Council recently accelerated the pace of reform of energy prices, natural gas prices rise, electricity price reform has been on the agenda, post-production costs of urea under pressure. If the urea prices continue to slump, business will face unprecedented difficulties, the whole industry will face serious challenges. Therefore, in this situation, enterprises should strengthen the joint, share the pain, it is necessary to consciously abide by "standard nitrogen fertilizer on the market competition order and self-discipline Convention," moderately reduced starting load for nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand balance, particularly in July should be reduce the maximum load, to ensure a smooth transition peak seasons, to prevent price fluctuations; Second, we must strive to standardize the market competition order, and resolutely put an end to below the manufacturing cost of sales; Third, we should actively explore the international urea markets, strengthen its largest export traders alliances and cooperation, make the second half of urea export work to alleviate the supply-demand contradiction; 4 yes to gradually strengthen the sales network and channels Jianshe, Tigao market's control efforts, actively Wei Hu nitrogen market 稳定; 5 is able to slow down the pace of Niaosu Kuo, accelerate the transformation of economic development and optimizing product mix, and take different development routes. (Han-Qin)