"By the end of 2010, China's methanol production capacity will reach 29.534 million tons at least, the output is expected to only 14.8 million tons, starts optimistically estimated that only 50%. Methanol industry is in a serious excess capacity, intense competition situation. If no measures are taken This dilemma will continue to '12 5' period. "At the Third International Methanol - DME / LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) market chain summit and the 2010 seminar on China's methanol fuel markets, China Petroleum and Chemical Feng Shiliang Industry Association senior analyst made the prediction.
        Suppress the impact of the price of imports
        According to reports, the first 5 months of this year, China's apparent consumption of methanol is about 8.6 million tons, domestic production was 6.68 million tons, imports 1.92 million tons, the export of 5,000 tons. Methanol imports accounting for 22% of total consumption.
"In terms of price, although the price of methanol increased year on year, 5 months ago, the average price is about 2456 yuan / ton, but much lower than before the crisis of 2008 the prices, even in 2004 the price of the total. "said Feng Shiliang The reason is that the price of methanol has been imported to the suppression of living. "1 May, the average import price of 311.7 U.S. dollars methanol / ton, higher than the cost of domestic methanol price is also low, very competitive." 
        Statistics show that in 2009, China's methanol consumption was about 16.61 million tons, of which about 11.33 million tons of domestic production and imported 5.276 million tons of methanol. China's methanol imports came in the top four of both countries from the Middle East. According to customs statistics, in 2009, Saudi Arabia exports to China was 1.707 million tons of methanol, 857,000 tons of Iran, Qatar, 408,000 tons, 384,000 tons of Oman. The four countries, China's methanol imports about 64% of the total.
       "Recently, the Ministry of Commerce decided to import anti-dumping investigation of methanol to extend the period for 6 months, delayed the deadline to December 24, 2010. The extension of anti-dumping investigation of methanol, methanol will lead to imports from overseas this year, a decrease compared to last year However, imports of the year is still expected to remain at 450 million tons, the domestic methanol market is no small impact. "Feng Shiliang think.
Long-term over-supply market
        According to experts introduced the current domestic methanol production enterprises is only 45% of the overall operating rate, starts with half of the total. This year the demand for methanol is likely to be less than the expected 21 million tons. 
        On the other hand, the end of 2010, domestic production of methanol, the original plan has 25 projects under construction, 8.61 million tons total capacity. Domestic methanol production capacity of at least 29,534,000 tons. In addition, there are 25 in China or in the planning stages of the proposed methanol project, total capacity of 24.4 million tons. If the alcohol industry continues to maintain the current pace of capacity expansion, to the "12 5" mid-term, that is, around 2013, the domestic methanol production capacity is likely to more than 50 million tons. Even in this period, out of 9 million ~ 10 million tons out backward production capacity, excess domestic methanol remains in a serious situation.