Following the 2010 International urea prices since February all the way down, and finally go up again in June. The second half of the factors affecting the international urea prices higher, the British consulting company FMB fertilizer on the market analysis that the off-season tariffs during the second half of the large number of Chinese exports and Iran's release of new capacity will bring greater international supply market competition But the United States, India, Thailand and other countries, strong demand of urea, so the whole, in the second half the price of urea will keep rising trend. 
        Usher in the third quarter to buy climax 
        U.S. :2009-2010, U.S. demand for imports to reach 5.4 million tons of urea, rice cultivation this year as the need will increase demand for urea is estimated in the second half. Early June low international urea reduced the U.S. stock traders to import, in the second half of the contract will be accompanied by Saudi Arabia imported 60,000 tons of urea after the arrival in August. Urea is expected to total U.S. demand for 2010-2011 and 2009-2010, a similar level of close to 5.4 million tons. 
        Latin America: As from April to May of cheap raised the enthusiasm of importers, Brazil Importers purchase large amount in the past few months, compared with the same period last year imports increased significantly. Brazilian imports of urea from 643,000 tons from January to April, May imports of 18.1 million tons by the end of June were ordered in early -8 50-60 tons of urea, it is estimated will be importing 20-25 million tons in August. Brazil is expected to import 2.1 million tons in 2010 year of urea, mainly in 7,8 months of imports. In addition to Brazil, the Mexico and Chile, the same demand. Mexico has already imported the importer July 4-5 boats urea, urea is mainly small particles. Import at least until September, is estimated to import 7.5-10 million tons of 8,9 months. Chile in July of 7.5 tons of urea imports, is expected in the third quarter, the average monthly purchase of 5-7.5 million tons of urea.
        India: India in June from Iran and Oman has imported 500,000 tons of urea, less than the planned import of one million tons. 2010 to the present, India has to buy 105-110 tons of urea, this needs to import 2.5 million tons. This means that from August to December the average monthly India needs to import 500,000 tons of urea, due to pre-import volume, of the estimated bulk purchase mainly from August to October.
        Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia needs of the overall urea began to rise in June. Thai stocks of the current to reach 60-70 million tons, but with rice, fertilizer season approaching, the third quarter of the domestic stock would be reduced. Thailand imported 951,000 tons from January to April of urea imports over the same period last year, 74.7 million tons, while imports over the same period in 2008 was only 630,000 tons, it will be Thailand's imports this year than last year and the year before had increased significantly. In addition, the Philippines in July mainly imported from Malaysia and the Middle East is estimated to reach 7-7.5 million tons of imports. Vietnamese buyers asking price is low, it is difficult to judge the late market, estimated amount of foreign buying 2-3 tons per month. South Korea imported 233,000 tons of urea from January to April, May has imported 104,000 tons, annual import volume is expected to reach 630,000 tons. 
        Strong demand pull prices
        Youzhny: As production fell in June led to Ukraine's exports of only 200,000 tons. Ukraine 5 July urea manufacturers in three close, so exports will not increase in July. At the same time as the Black Sea and Egypt, granular urea supply is limited, in July the price could spike to fob 260 U.S. dollars / tonne. By the end of July to August, especially from the early July days, prices may fob 240-245 U.S. dollars / ton based on the increase to 245-260 U.S. dollars / ton, estimated fourth-quarter prices up 270 U.S. dollars / ton.
        Middle East: the higher operating rate of the Middle East in July, Saudi Arabia sold 8 vessels of urea, the highest price FOB 260 U.S. dollars / tonne. Iran's annual output of 1.1 million tons Pardis second phase of the project has already begun production, so a lot of Iranian exports at least until August. However, tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the United States has begun to impose sanctions on Iran, it is likely to affect Iran's exports of urea. Overall, since 8,9 urea on strong demand in India and the United States has ushered in the purchase of a new upsurge of urea, so the Middle East producers are likely to be the third quarter price increase to 274 - 285 U.S. dollars / ton, and there may be higher in the fourth quarter, the highest estimate may reach 295 U.S. dollars / ton. 
        Egypt: European demand, especially in Egypt, Turkey, the demand is the main driving force of rising export prices. Egypt's surplus by the end of July quotes 265 - 270 U.S. dollars / ton, but traders asking price 255-256 U.S. dollars / ton. Egypt's Helwan urea manufacturers by the end of July, has signed a contract ship granular urea, price FOB 258 U.S. dollars / ton. Similar price movements in the Middle East, is expected in August and September of Egypt urea export prices may increase to 265-275 U.S. dollars / ton, the fourth quarter is expected to reach 270-300 dollars / ton range.
        United States: urea prices hit bottom in June, the lowest FOB 220 U.S. dollars for the Nora / t, but from July to August and goods prices have been resumed to 255 - 260 U.S. dollars / ton, slightly lower than international market prices. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will have a boat to reach the U.S. Gulf. But in July of Venezuela and Trinidad is not the export target on the U.S., Egypt and no shipments to the United States. Therefore, only the United States to maintain inventory of suppliers to August, this has to a certain extent, the United States in July fueled steady growth in urea prices. (Zhang Fan)