With the end of summer dressing, mainly the second half of the autumn market and Dong Chu; basically stable domestic price of urea, diammonium phosphate export support high prices, potash market starts looking forward to the fall, should the continuation of past practice, began to be prepared fertilizer , the overall price up slightly, but this year a special form, the active has been a marked degree than in previous years, demand, inventory, raw materials remain the domestic fertilizer market trend in the second half of the main factors. 

         More prosperous second half of the demand 

         China since December 2009 from the introduction of the new export tariffs on fertilizer policy, nitrogen, phosphorus export tariff of 110% high season, low season tariffs as low as 7%. As the current domestic and international market prices of nitrogen and phosphorus is insignificant, the domestic form of nitrogen and phosphorus export less optimistic about the second half of the fall in the market and therefore market demand Dongchu season, domestic demand will mainly determine the price of fertilizer and industrial boom of the changes.

         The highlight of the second half of the number of winter wheat to the Dong Chu during and at the end of the market, and compared with previous years, is not optimistic about the fertilizer market in the first half of this year, companies run the majority of losses, fertilizer prices are not high volume is also less severe oversupply, lack of confidence by the impact of climate anomalies and market demand can not be seen, the mainstream market continued to show a smooth trend. 

         Social stock limited 

         By the first half of the demand is not affected, fertilizer manufacturers and dealers are not large amounts of inventory to sales as they enter the main; present, China's nitrogenous fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer than self-sufficient, self-sufficiency rate of potassium significantly increased. Significantly improved product structure, high concentration of fertilizer accounted for 75%, compound fertilizer serious excess capacity, the industry overall underemployment.

         It is reported by various factors, the present fertilizer enterprise joy over uneven in different regions, different stocks: lack of demand drivers, manufacturers of basic production and marketing of low load balance, in order to avoid large losses, the basic balance between supply and demand of raw materials. It is understood that the excess urea production, supply and demand situation can be serious in oversupply, Dan Cheng Ben and Chukouzhicheng range, short-term prices should Hai Shi Nei main shock consolidation; potash supply of domestic Xiaochang 到目前为止 Lueweijinzhang, a Ammonium started the whole lack of inventory is not in the long term the overall balance of supply and demand may occur resulting from centralized purchasing fertilizer factory prices.

         From the above factor, supported by the raw materials, fertilizer prices Buzhi Yu fallen sharply in the second half, but by overcapacity, oversupply reverse constraints, market demand, prices will definitely stage a rebound. On the whole, the overall market significantly greater upward pressure. (Nan Lian)