After three weeks of continuous decline, Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal price last week stabilized. However, due to coal supply and demand situation has turned loose, short-term coal prices will remain weak, unlikely significantly increased. Qinhuangdao Port coal price is known as market leader role, the current price is not busy season, not only reflects the current coal market conditions and also predict future demand and supply will remain more relaxed for some time.

       Signs of coal demand 

        On the demand side, a consumption of coal accounts for half of total consumption of electricity, for example, from January to June this year, the cumulative generating capacity of 1.9706 trillion kwh, up 19.3%, increasing 343.1 billion kwh. Coal consumption by 334 g / kWh basis, the total coal consumption 6.5818 million tons, an increase of 114.6 million tons. The total generating capacity of 1-7 months increased 17.95% year on year increase of 1.35 percentage points lower.

        Meanwhile, the other big coal consumption, such as steel, building materials also showed slower growth trend. It is estimated that the first half of electric power, iron and steel, building materials, chemical industry, coal consumption in the four major coal consumption was 1.43 billion tons, an increase of 202 million tons, the range of 16.45%, significantly lower than the same period 20.1% increase in coal production. Therefore, the supply and demand of coal supply and demand than the show's tight balance from the past to a more liberal balance.

        As the macro-economic slowdown in the coming months will continue at the same time eliminate backward production capacity, and efforts to increase energy efficiency and reducing consumption, coal demand growth expected to continue to slow. Although still substantial growth year on year, but the chain declined significantly. The data show that the first quarter of this year compared to the national average daily coal consumption in the last quarter, decreased 0.2%, while in the second quarter than the first quarter fell 2.8%, Central.

       Significant increase in the effective supply of coal 

        And changes in demand difference is that the effective supply of coal is increasing. The data show that this year, China's coal production increased, the cumulative production as of June reached 1.571 billion tons, up 20.1%, increase 263 million tons. Although the single month of yield fluctuation, but the trend is upward. For example, in March to 279.8 million tons, in April to 269.3 million tons, in May to 283.9 million tons.

       Substantial growth in fixed asset investment in coal, coal mining industry this year, 1-7 in the completion of fixed assets amounted to 175.8 billion yuan, compared to 145.8 billion yuan, up 20.5%. Some coal-producing province of resources integration through the formation of a large number of modern new mines, which will add new capacity. Furthermore, with the increase and improvement of the transport line, the coal transportation bottlenecks are gradually overcome, the effective supply of coal will increase dramatically. 

      The price of coal in stock or restricted 

       Earlier this year, before and after the balance of the coal market is tight, then rising coal prices reflect this relationship. With the advent of spring season of coal, to stimulate the contraction of economic policy and regulation on the property in mid-April increasing the degree of slowdown in coal demand, supply and demand has shifted from the tight loose. According to the coal trade center in Northeast Asia network data, as of the end 6, the national inventory of coal reached 204 million tons, increasing 1.71% than last month, compared with 1.8173 million tons last year increased 12.25%.

       Coal prices in a timely manner to reflect this relaxed state, the Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal price in January of this year reached a high point, after the arrival of the fall season with the coal. Despite the rebound since then, but highly limited, and in the summer season the price of coal is still relatively weak performance.

       Comprehensive judgments, the second half of the coal supply and demand will continue to maintain a more relaxed state. In this context, even if coal prices of coal in the winter season there will certainly rise in the rate of increase is still very limited. Listed companies from the coal mining situation, has published semiannual reports of 15 companies in the first half net profit attributable to shareholders up 44% significant increase. However, growth is expected in the second half year performance growth will decline, in addition to the higher base last year, the slowdown in the second half of the coal demand and coal prices stable, coal companies will be restricted performance improved. (Wei-Bo Wang)