Since September 2, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to decline. As of September 16, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.7181, compared with September 1 drop of 945 basis points, about 1.5% appreciation of 16 days, corresponding to about 37.5% annualized increase substantially over 2005 and 2008 annual all appreciation of the speed.

        Since June 19, 2010 Since the resumption of exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate from the last few months of view, the central bank present in the actual operation, the RMB exchange rate adjustment is still a strong tendency to value of the dollar as the base: when the dollar index was significantly appreciation trend of the RMB against the U.S. dollar tends to depreciate; the other hand, tend to appreciate the yuan against the U.S. dollar. Reflected in the graphics, the dollar index on the form and with the RMB exchange rate against the dollar to the campaign.

        Taking into account the trend of domestic economic performance, combined with the medium-term and short-term exchange rate against the U.S. dollar judgments, the RMB exchange rate outlook can be summarized as follows: Overall, the trend of RMB appreciation in the medium term will be maintained, in the current foreseeable range, the yuan appreciation of the dollar rate will be higher than in 2005 and 2008 of some slow.

The dollar index is weak since 2002, long range, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2010 debt crisis in Europe the first half of the dollar index in liquidity demand and hedging demand, driven by factors such as short-term rebound in the first appeared , but no reversal of trend, do not enter the second half of the current round of a long cycle.

        U.S. commercial banking system would be less than the eurozone, Japan and other major developed economies lead firms system restore, firm system of credit creation function of the recovery will expand the supply of dollars.

Depreciation of the dollar trends in commodity prices might not be an upward trend, such as 80 in the late 20th century, the mid-90 range in a weak U.S. dollar, weaker commodity prices also. In the medium-term trend in commodity prices more closely with demand and supply trends. Taking into account within the next two years, global economic growth remains relatively weak, in the context of a weak U.S. dollar, commodities more likely situation is the differentiation of different varieties.

In the short term growth momentum in the developed economies on the decline, commodity prices, especially crude oil prices in the first quarter of next year before the interval may be disadvantaged. (Chih-Qin)