Since September 2, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to decline. As of September 16, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar was 6.7181, compared with September 1 drop of 945 basis points, about 1.5% appreciation of 16 days, corresponding to about 37.5% annualized increase substantially over 2005 and 2008 annual all appreciation of the speed.

        Since June 19, 2010 Since the resumption of exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate from the last few months of view, the central bank present in the actual operation, the RMB exchange rate adjustment is still a strong tendency to value of the dollar as the base: when the dollar index was significantly appreciation trend of the RMB against the U.S. dollar tends to depreciate; the other hand, tend to appreciate the yuan against the U.S. dollar. Reflected in the graphics, the dollar index on the form and with the RMB exchange rate against the dollar to the campaign.

        Taking into account the trend of domestic economic performance, combined with the medium-term and short-term exchange rate against the U.S. dollar judgments, the RMB exchange rate outlook can be summarized as follows: Overall, the trend of RMB appreciation in the medium term will be maintained, in the current foreseeable range, the yuan appreciation of the dollar rate will be higher than in 2005 and 2008 of some slow.

Weak prospects for the dollar index

        Since the dollar index since the '70s and went through two and a half cycles since 2002 are now in this cycle bottomed stage.

        The dollar index is weak since 2002, long range, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the first half of 2010 debt crisis of the European dollar index demand and hedging demand for liquidity, driven by such factors as short-term rebound in the first appeared , but no reversal of trend, do not enter the second half of the current round of a long cycle.

        We have one or two years the trend of the dollar index still have relatively cautious view. From the two core reasons:

1. In the next two years, the dollar supply in the central level will not be significantly tightened, interest rates low probability;

2. U.S. commercial banking system would be less than euro zone, Japan and other major developed economies, the first firm system restore, firm system of credit creation function of the dollar will resume the supply of the expansion.

        In this logic, the U.S. dollar reversed the trend is relatively clear conditions:

1. Dollar supply tightening, or on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank rate hike expectations have undergone a fundamental change in the order;

2. Dollar zone expected return on investment trend of the changes occurred.

The differentiation of commodities

        Depreciation of the dollar trends in commodity prices might not be an upward trend, such as the late 80s in the 20th century to the mid-90s range in the weak U.S. dollar, weak commodity prices as well. In the medium-term trend in commodity prices more closely with demand and supply trends. Taking into account within the next two years, global economic growth remains relatively weak, in the context of a weak U.S. dollar, commodities more likely situation is the differentiation of different varieties.

        In the short term growth momentum in the developed economies on the decline, commodity prices, especially crude oil prices in the first quarter of next year before the interval may be disadvantaged. (Any idea, Gao Wei Dong, Gao Shanwen)