"Coal companies quote very high, up 60 to 80 yuan per ton or even higher, and is emboldened enough." One of the five power generation groups, a person in charge of the fuel center yesterday to the "First Financial Daily" said.
GF Securities analyst Chen Liang, chief judge of the coal industry, coal prices in 2011 is expected to rise more than 15%, of which 10% to 12% of steam coal, coking coal, 15% to 20%. This means that the contract coal prices will likely reach 600 yuan / ton. "Final contract will be signed before March next year." China Energy Research Society, an expert said in an interview, "If the final is really the price, power generation, industry-wide losses of enterprises will again, the Government may be shot again increased electricity prices, fuel costs will be passed on thermal power. "
Thermal coal demand
In addition to five power generation groups recently convened a working conference of fuel, the other power companies are to discuss countermeasures, China Resources Power's recent meeting in Nanning, we have to share some information." Said the fuel center.
Earlier this year, the Group of five major coal power to control or gain less than 5%, according to Shanxi and other places last year signed a contract, the contract price of coal for 520 direct yuan / ton, water coal prices 595 yuan / ton, which means that power next year The bottom line is the plant 550 yuan / ton in.
But these fuel center said: "Every year nearly Qinhuangdao coal price of 800 yuan / ton, when power companies often have clout."
November 9, Deutsche Bank predicted in its latest analysis report, with the economic situation improves, coal demand in Asia will continue to maintain a rapid growth rate, growth rate will reach 12%. Meanwhile, as the market decline of coal supply and coal demand gap may be from 2010 to 200 million tons to 13 million tons.
"Asian thermal coal market demand, will continue to push up the price of thermal coal is expected in fiscal year 2011 contract coal prices in Japan and Australia will from now on $ 98 / ton to 110 U.S. dollars / ton." Deutsche Bank analyst Daniel Brebner said.
This year, China continued growth in 2009 net imports of coal trend, the first 9 months net imports of coal reached the level of last year. Prior to this, large international brokerage firm ICAP is expected to ship this year, China's coal imports will reach 160 to 165 million tons.
Short term, the power company is very optimistic about the situation. Datang Group, Center for Ren Gaoen fuel management clear, says that to the end of November, Datang Group to complete the power plant more than 15 days of inventory tarAt present the contract for power plants and coal enterprises in coal procurement ratio is about 5:5, meaning that except for a few plants, there is a 50% majority of coal power plants need to purchase from the market.
"Signed the contract is not necessarily useful, the implementation is getting worse now, of which the Friends of One species of coal, almost the auction, the highest bidder." Fuel power plant in Guangxi, a manager in the telephone interview , expressed his frustration.
Overall increase in network load
November 15, east along the power plants at coal consumption rose by 6% qoq week, coal storage in the number of days from 13 days to 12 days. The Hubei Provincial Commission by letter monitoring data show that beginning from September 26, Hubei Province, to begin less than the amount of coal consumption of coal, coal reserves in Hubei province's 3.76 million tons from the original, quickly falling to 231 million tons.
Hubei Power Company's data also showed that the current coal inventory in Hubei province of 4 million tons / day rate of decline. "If you can not effectively solve the problem of shortage of coal, to 12 months late, Hubei Province, will be forced power cuts." Hubei Power Company, a source said in an interview.
Northwest Power Grid of the news shows, 15 November, the five northwestern provinces (regions) in addition Ningxia electricity load fell by a larger high-energy impact, the other four provinces (regions) have different level of growth, including Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang provinces (regions) grid has a new record peak load.
Liaoning Electric Power Company to the newspaper's data show, November 15, the Liaoning region of the whole society the largest electricity load also broke a record last year. Liaoning Electric Power Company is expected even if it does not take into account the implementation of energy conservation policy, as the temperature decreases further, Liaoning power grid load will further increase in December will be reaching record highs.
"Now more than a month away from energy saving time will end, that time all of the resumption of production of high energy consumption enterprises, plus it is winter, while facing the spring, three factors superimposed to rise when the price of coal may also be retaliatory. "The China Energy Research Society, experts say. (H Wing Yu)