Cinda Securities has issued the annual Industry Strategy Report 2011. Chen Li released the 2010 China Fertilizer Situation and Prospects 2011, speech.
2011, "twelve to five" first year, domestic and international fertilizer demand will continue to be stable, but the world as well as a serious over-supply of the fertilizer industry is estimated that market competition will be fierce price war might result in some enterprises to survive difficult. Fertilizer industry in 2011 will show the following characteristics:
preferential policies will remain: Fertilizer is food, "food" the special status determines its importance, in order to ensure food safety in production in 2011, the national fertilizer industry will continue to retain the preferential policies, such as tax breaks, materials, transport and tariff concessions, but with a higher level of market, these incentives will gradually decline; Similarly, in order to ensure continued normal domestic fertilizer supply will be more stringent export controls, extend the period of peak tariffs, tariff shortened season.
steady demand, market competition: with balanced fertilization, and a new promotion and application of fertilizers, declining growth of fertilizer demand is expected to increase in demand in 2011 will be 2-3%. The end of Eleventh Five new capacity but more rapid output growth is estimated to be very fierce market competition, price war is inevitable.
Enterprises to survive the difficulties, increased integration: production costs continue to increase, while the level of competition was intense, resulting in smaller and smaller space for corporate profits. Those small-scale, high energy consumption, poor management of the enterprise may be forced to take this round of competition Guantingbingzhuan the road.
investment boom will be effectively suppressed: "Twelve Five" idea is to control the development of new fertilizer projects, development of new varieties of fertilizer. Almost no nitrogen fertilizer on the new project, the replacement of the principle of taking control of production capacity growth; P 3-5 years are no longer newly approved projects. Continued investment boom a few years ago led to a serious oversupply of fertilizer production capacity, so that the market is very competitive in recent years, the price slump. Investment boom in 2011 is estimated to be effectively controlled. (If blue)