In recent years, domestic coal resources combination makes capacity being rapidly shrinking, 2011 supply amount is likely to below market expectations, coal prices are expected to rise. Meanwhile, China's coke futures also launched in recent financial derivatives, gradual development of coal prices.

Globalization will play a positive role.

This year coal supply steering nervous

By the Spring Festival factors, the controlsafety bureau and the coal industry association of different province coal output and points ownership coal output data has not yet come. However, we at the end of February in henan province coal listed companies, a joint research, through understanding of coal production enterprise production planning and integrated production progress, we judge ore domestic coal supply may this year by loose become nervous.

At present, the domestic coal supply the overall situation, on the one hand, is the western Mongolia, shanxi, gansu and ningxia area output growth has not been control, incremental and growth are more obvious; On the other hand, shanxi and henan province over the past two years by integrating resources, small ore production yet, the influence of production has not obvious, but its integrated release ore output when released were still market worry.

By the end of last year and earlier this year, us for shanxi and henan production enterprise, and intensive research. From the company's production plan view, 2011 provinces in the new official reply technical production and new start mine examination and approval are cautious. Shanxi integration mineral can be delivered is 2012 will release, Henan province, due to integrate ore mining condition in general, existing recoverable reserves small impact, this year can release the integration of ore should account for only a fifth of the total, namely 1000 tons, the national coal supply shock is smaller.

Recent development and reform commission to receive shanganning area energy industry research has begun, once these provinces on resources integration, domestic coal supply will be rapidly shrinking, demand and supply environment, probably in a short time, rapid strained hign coal prices.

Currently tugboat inventory increased, in feb. Last week, QinGang inventories have 800 tons, achieve breakthroughs 826 tons. We think inventory short-term growth is introduced.in the peak of the inertial by winter caused by pulling, traders still in positive reserves of coal, causing inventory short-term had increased.

Price rises expected the strongest anthracite

Power coal domestic prices are calm high heat varieties slightly raise price. Recent tugboat shanxi coal price basic maintain optimal mix in 770-780 yuan/ton, price smoothly, are calm. Whipping-boy asia-pacific markets, the Australian flood the infrastructure of the impact of Queensland larger, 2 month Newcastle port coal prices began to flush again high.

As this year the price of samples, we increase gradually in ports power coal price model and the routine adjustment. From the latest modeling situation, the year low prices in coal, power coal price bottom backward-shift from 2 month began to continue until mid-april, from late April gradually began to go tall, dramatic price rise fast will appear in the fourth quarter.

Coking coal are still raise price possible second quarter, short-term need to see steel enterprise bear ability. Early January, the domestic coking coal enterprises have raised keissler product price, market also formed the second quarter coking coal prices are still raise price may be expected. From our recent research situation, the coking coal prices have raised the possibility of rising, but the amplitude and time points need to see iron &steel enterprise bear ability.

Because this year in iron ore prices still upwards, shandong coke price also has rise up, iron and steel enterprise cost pressure increased. Coking coal as "coal - focal - steel" industry chain upstream products, and has the most obvious resource scarcity, pricing initiative, but relatively frequency is not very high, so we judge of coking coal price years will rise, but march rose is unlikely.

Price rises expected short-term anthracite most intense. Domestic methanol starts restore somewhat, each anthracite coal prices have been raised origin. January this year than last year the average price of the anthracite price increases 12%, feb. Anthracite price and January flat. We believe in the short term, anthracite is most has the possibility of rising varieties.

Current global coal futures market in China are being extended, coke futures also will, in the near future, we will launch in coal financial derivatives gradual development process, the price of coal by globalization plays a positive role. The current our country's coal to guangzhou port price has exceeded imports coal have advantages, this price depressions are expected to fill in the second quarter. (ZhouSiLi)