With global food prices last year rose 29%, 15% of domestic food prices, the price of fertilizer this year rose 10% to 20%.
As a "food food" fertilizer prices is directly related to the future food trends. To this end, the Ministry of Agriculture launched a month-long "investigation hundred rural households" campaign, has come to an end. Survey data show that fertilizer prices are at a high level throughout operation.
In an interview after interview each, experts said that agricultural prices increased the cost of grain farmers to push up food prices, but not the whole of fertilizer supply and demand gap, and the Ministry of Agriculture has expressed concern about the issue of fertilizer price hikes "multi-pronged approach" will make fertilizer prices inhibition.
Over a year into fertilizer prices
Month-long Department of Agriculture, "Rural households per survey" activities have come to an end. Reporter from the Ministry of Agriculture, 7 million rural households comprehensive survey group and 24 provinces in the agricultural sector survey data, the current fertilizer prices are at around the high, the species generally higher than prices last year 10% to 20%.
Among them, diammonium phosphate, ammonium bicarbonate, the highest increase fertilizer, or more than 15% in many provinces. Such as ammonium bicarbonate, up 22.5% in Beijing, Fujian, up 50%; diammonium phosphate, up 25% of Heilongjiang, Jilin, up 23.1%; compound in Beijing rose 19.2% and so on.
China Fertilizer network analyst Dushuang Jiang told reporters that the main reason for the current fertilizer prices of international raw materials prices on agricultural production, oil and other basic energy prices, and prices of transportation and other related industries due to rising costs.
In explaining the reasons for rising domestic grain prices last year, the Agriculture Ministry experts have repeatedly said is one of the main cost-push. The "cost" includes the fertilizers and other agricultural materials prices, labor prices.
Fertilizer prices will be rising food prices pushing hands? In this regard, the investment adviser chemical industry researcher Yi-Chi Chang pointed out that fertilizer prices will certainly affect the demand of farmers for fertilizer and farming initiative, which some impact on the spring. Moreover, the fertilizer price increases to a certain extent, promoted food prices.
However, Du Shuangjiang view, this causality is not unidirectional. "A lot of fertilizer plants that, because of rising food prices, they have the confidence or reason to raise fertilizer prices."
It is noteworthy that, for fertilizer prices high, many provinces have been reflected in "wait and see the peasants in general, compared with previous years, farmers prepare fertilizer postponed, progress is slow, which affected both the enthusiasm of dealers equipment fertilizer."
"Supply and demand gap" is a misreading
With the higher fertilizer prices on fertilizer supply and demand gap, fertilizer enterprise losses, and other remarks are also beginning to increase.
"In fact, only need to rely on imports of potash, the most important basic balance between supply and demand of urea, phosphate and even supply exceeds demand. If from the production point of view, the excess urea and phosphate are serious." Dushuang Jiang, China's annual demand for urea 55 million ~ 60 million tons, but production capacity of 7000 tons; P annual demand of about 14 million tons, already more than 20 million tons production capacity.
He also said that the current operating rate of the domestic fertilizer plants in Bacheng about a higher level, we can see, business is profitable, even if there is a loss, but also a minority phenomenon.
Although the total production of an adequate supply of business, "a gap" is indeed the fertilizer market, especially in the downstream market, the true feelings. "In recent years, most of the dealers or farmers will have a normal winter stocking Dongchu, but always one to spring to plunges, leading to Dongchu exchange for a modest profit, or even lose money. So this year, fertilizer prices, the increasingly No one is willing to getting goods. "Dushuang Jiang said that during the spring, fertilizer demand accounted for about 60% of the year, the state of preparedness so fat does not actively market the general sense of" a gap. "
He was concerned that the "gap" is exaggerated or misread, the fertilizer manufacturers in the summer and fall this year sales of the pressure may increase, "because now it seems, this year's fertilizer production also increased over last year."
National Bureau of Statistics show that China's total production of fertilizer in February 4.911 million tons, the chain of 4.592 million tons in January grew by 7% year on year in February to 4.51 million tons increased by 8.9%. 1 to 2 months, the cumulative production of 9,504,000 tons of fertilizer, compared with 8,969,000 tons last year increased by 6%.
Ministry of Agriculture experts believe that spring is about to unfold, the farmers will result in delay in preparation time to focus on fertilizer purchase of the peak, likely to cause price volatility. Now need to pay close attention to the departments concerned, to prepare for measures to stabilize the market.
Regulatory intervention in the market will stabilize
Fertilizer supply in ensuring stable food production, agriculture and other related departments have begun operations. Before the Spring Festival, the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Agriculture, nine departments jointly issued a document, required to do the work in 2011 spring fertilizer supply to ensure normal production and consumption of fertilizer, gas supply, no fertilizer business rolling blackouts. In February the State Council executive meeting, and proposed the implementation of weak seedling fertilization of winter wheat jointing reviving subsidy of 10 yuan per mu, and other measures.
Ministry of Agriculture, "Rural households per survey" activities, the Ministry of Agriculture's "Farmer's Daily" wrote many times, "said fertilizer prices cause for concern", "market prices of chemical fertilizers this spring, the pressure is still high." With particular reference to the Ministry of Agriculture early warning and monitoring of agricultural market research group, said the military head of dragons, "To protect the interests of farmers with sparse block."
Quotes for the afternoon, often more optimistic view of Yi Zhi. After he told every reporter in the response of relevant state departments, the fertilizer prices will be inhibited. However, the export volume last year to increase the domestic fertilizer market, the market supply is tight, is expected to decline in the future market price of fertilizer is limited. (HE Jun)