National Bureau of Statistics will release May 14, the main macro-economic data, consumer price (CPI) or whether to continue to rise much market attention. Some analysts believe that the food prices and the base period under the influence of factors in the second quarter to reach 5.5% CPI increase, the highest peak during the year, CPI increase from the third quarter will slow down.
The published price monitoring data, the recent impact of the price of the favorable and unfavorable conditions exist. Favorable conditions in some areas, drought relief to help stabilize food prices and food prices; stable commodity prices, reducing the pressure of imported inflation continues to spread. Adverse conditions, pork, seafood and egg prices over the down trend since the Spring Festival, the recent rising trend to some extent. Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song that China May CPI rise may reach 5.5%, 0.2 percentage points last month to expand; industrial producer prices (PPI) rose 6.4%, 6.8% in the previous month dropped.
In the CPI rise may be a new high pressure, may continue tight monetary policy. CICC study released that June, July, once the central bank may raise interest rates again in May to expand the scale of trade surplus, which means there is still some room for appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.
Analysts said the impact of the recent price hikes rose to become an important factor.
Increase over the same period last year, the chain has continued to decline, bringing this year in May, June CPI rose higher the possibility of greatly increased. From the third quarter, and down the economic Redu under the influence of price controls, price inflation is expected to go down the turning point.
State Information Center, Fan Jianping, director of economic forecasting that the coming period, the macro-control will continue to price stability the primary objective. Annual CPI increase may appear high in the second quarter, the second half of the price increases will fall.
There are institutions that prices may fall later point in time. SW Retrospect, chief macroeconomic analyst believes that the liquidity contraction and the context of economic restructuring, price increases and gradually decline is a high probability event. However, due to drought in southern parts of the factors and high prices, future price increases down time may be later than expected.
State Council Development Research Center of the macro Minister Yu Bin said that the current upward pressure on prices in China are still large, have not seen the peak and inflection point. Macro-economic policy priorities will continue to control prices as the core, and pay close attention to the price level and economic growth and change policies to prepare well in advance. (Han Xiaodong)