Last week, the last trading day, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar reported 6.4716, hit a new high since the exchange reform. At this time the reform has been restarted from the last whole year, the past year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated 5.5%.
Restart the reform to show which features a year? Whether to move closer to policy targets? Future exchange rate policy on?
Restart the appreciation of 5.5% after the reform
Restart since the reform of RMB exchange rate to move closer and further to the equilibrium level, obvious characteristics of two-way floating exchange rate flexibility is significantly enhanced over the past year total more than 5% against the dollar.
2010 With the strong recovery of our economy, to achieve the normalization of the exchange rate, U.S. dollar peg policy of phased exit conditions have been met. June 19, 2010 People's Bank of China announced further promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the market that the "restart the exchange rate system reform."
Over the past year, the RMB exchange rate as a whole showing a "split step" type and the flexibility to enhance the appreciation of the salient features of the two.
Data, restart the second trading day after the reform, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar is sharply higher 295 basis points, broke through to the 6.80 mark. This year, in the context of a weaker dollar, the RMB exchange rate, "Scattered-style" appreciation of the trend more apparent. Following the January 13, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar after breaking 6.60 mark, April 29, breaking 6.50 mark again, the RMB exchange rate into the 6.4 era.
It is worth mentioning that, with the financial crisis the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar, "nailed" 6.83 yuan significantly different from the past year, the RMB against the U.S. dollar showing "Scattered-style" appreciation of the situation at the same time, two-way floating exchange rate is also very obvious feature . Data show that in more than 200 trading days, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated a total of 147 days, 92 days devaluation; in some trading days, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar more than 0.2% the maximum amplitude of the next day, the maximum maximum rate of appreciation and depreciation of more than 100 basis points. Just reboot the second trading day after the reform, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar sharply higher 295 basis points, the amplitude close to the management set the upper limit of 0.5%, the highest since the volatility of exchange rate reform to restart the most.
Induced by unilateral appreciation of the expected
Sun Yun was a clothing export business executives, their company's products are mainly exported to European markets. He recently became a value of about $ 1 million business, but the thought of the past year has been the appreciation of the yuan, but some worry about his.
"The other side just to pay the $ 200,000 deposit, and $ 800,000 payment on delivery in three months, if even then the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 1 percent, I will lost several million yuan." SUN Yun told reporters, many of today's small businesses tend to sign short-term orders, under orders to avoid long-term exchange rate fluctuations.
Foreign Trade University, said Ding Zhijie, Dean of the financial return to a balanced level of RMB appreciation on the trade sector, the impact of more short-term. Medium and long term, upward pressure will promote industrial upgrading, will the Chinese economy and higher commodity in the new platform to regain international competitiveness.
"Restart the reform played a certain extent, the function of inflationary pressures." Chinese Academy of Social Sciences World Economics and International Finance, Deputy Director of the Bin that commodity prices in the first half when a certain level of appreciation of the yuan could reduce the company imports cost, ease imported inflationary pressures.
Experts advise to restart the reform, the market's expectation of RMB appreciation to strengthen, the phenomenon of hot money arrives obviously, this has restricted the effectiveness of monetary policy is a major constraint.
"Restart the important role of the reform is to avoid a devaluation of the yuan with U.S. dollar, but also a unilateral appreciation of the anticipated problems, bringing an influx of foreign capital in the past year, the central bank to buy foreign exchange for the delivery of the passive more than 30,000 billion yuan in base money, M2 money supply increased by 10 trillion yuan. "said Ding Zhijie.
Experts point out that the expected appreciation of the continuing into the cause hot money overseas, bringing the number to increase foreign exchange, increased pressure on domestic liquidity, limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy to play. Had six times this year the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, the freezing of funds more than 1.8 trillion yuan, the direct intention is to flush the monthly average of 3,000 billion new foreign exchange.
How to get rid of unilateral appreciation of the expected
There is always the expected appreciation of the reform process has been a lingering shadow, how to get rid of intensified unilateral RMB appreciation expectations, has become "the second half stage of the reform" is not open decision-making around the issue.
Experts point out that greater exchange rate flexibility will help to form a bilateral exchange rate fluctuations in depth, increasing the opportunity cost of unilateral arbitrage can be weakened to some extent, the expected appreciation.
"The reason why lingering appreciation of the renminbi is expected, mainly because of the rigid exchange rate regime and foreign exchange reserves continued to increase significantly. Risk-free unilateral speculation, but also resulted in the expected self-realization." SAFE payments Secretary pipe Tao said the author, improve the exchange rate mechanism is to further increase the core of the RMB exchange rate flexibility to allow the market exchange rate play an increasing role.
SAFE recently released 2010 Annual Report also noted that the next stage to forge ahead the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. Focus on improving the market-based, managed floating exchange rate system and gradually increase flexibility of RMB exchange rate, full rate in the domestic and international markets in the configuration exchange resources.
Some scholars believe that the means can be substantial appreciation, so that the RMB exchange rate rose one place, in order to break the expected appreciation of the problem.
"The rise does not rise, the formation of the expected appreciation is the major reason causing the inflow of hot money, with weakening expected appreciation is the appreciation of one of the measures." Said Ding Zhijie.
Zhang Bin also believes that the current small step is tantamount to the appreciation of entry to the speculators distribute invitations, rose one place might not be not an option.
However, there is by trade, although China's current exchange rate fluctuations against the U.S. dollar allowed the yuan central parity of the upper and lower range of 0.5%, but the actual point of view, the past year, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate fluctuations rarely exceeded 0.3%. "The fundamental reason is floating over the General Assembly decision-makers worried about the current deterioration of the export business situation, according to this view, the sharp appreciation of the unlikely." (Eg, winter)