Macroeconomic situation, the State Information Center Task Force issued a report yesterday that the initial estimates, in the first half and full year of China's GDP (gross domestic product) grew by 9.5% and 9.3%, CPI (consumer prices) rose 5.3% and 4.9 percent. In the second half of economic growth may slow down slightly, slightly lower price level than in the first half. Reported in June unless new factors decreased, or a new high CPI is already inevitable.
Inflation in the second half dominance or recessive
The report notes that in the second half, the cost-push inflation pressures may be further dominance. Structural shortage of labor led to rising labor costs, oil prices, raw material prices and other price increases and also makes farmers and a substantial increase in production costs. The current business of self-digestion are becoming less capable of rising costs, price pressure in the second half of enterprise products.
In addition to explicit inflation, there are also hidden inflationary pressures. As the oil, gas, electricity, water and other long-term implementation of government price controls, factor prices slow progress in reforms, was forced to use administrative means to replace part of the price leverage, to bring our country a greater implicit inflation. In the second half, hidden inflationary dominance of the pressure.
However, the report said, by policy, economic and international market impact of various factors, in the second half to record high CPI growth is unlikely, there may be 4.5% -5.5% range stand-off for some time. Initial estimates, the first half of 2011 and annual CPI rose 5.3% and 4.9%, the industrial producer prices (PPI) rose 7 percent and 6.8 percent.
Price control policy to the test
The report notes that despite intensive since last year introduced a series of real estate control policies, but the real estate market is still in a stalemate, prices are still strong. Published early in most cities the real estate goals change "target prices" and seriously undermine the strength of central regulation and control policy.
According to data released by National Bureau of Statistics, May, 70 cities, the newly built commercial housing prices fell in only three, and a decline of only nine cities, the city has 11 flat, the rest of the city there are different level rise. Meanwhile, the national real estate sales in April fell 10.4% in stark contrast, real estate sales rebounded sharply in May, an increase of 18.8%. This indicates that some buyers have begun to re-enter the real estate market, real estate control policies once again faced the test of its success.
The report notes that in the second half, China's economic growth slows and inflation rate are in a controllable range. Monetary policy should continue to adhere to prudent monetary policy and the necessary control efforts, and focus on improving the effectiveness of monetary policy. Continue to use open market operations, reserve ratio, the number of tools to manage and control market liquidity, we should pay more attention to the use of interest rates, exchange rates and other price instruments, the gradual elimination of negative interest rates. (Ma Wenting)