July 10 news, the National Development and Reform Commission secretary-general Wang weekend in Macroeconomics, "Tsinghua University, China and the World Economic Forum" forecast, China's economy for three consecutive years starting this year will slow down, the most dangerous in 2013, from the macro-control Paul turned to anti-inflation growth.
Day forum to "slow down, what it means" as the theme. Monetary Policy Committee, David as a host, each guest to make the existence of China's economic slowdown, deceleration is due to policy issues such as excessive regulation. Many well-known economist, said in addition to inflation, the issue of China's economic slowdown is also worth attention.
National Development and Reform Commission secretary-general Wang macroeconomic forecasts, China's economy for three consecutive years starting this year will slow down, GDP growth will be 9%, 8%, 7%, the most dangerous in 2013.
He believes that the current investment data to be misread: Last year, investment growth was 23.8%, 25.8% is from January to May this year, looks increased. However, the data refers to the investment amount of investment to complete, does not mean that current investment demand, investment demand, on behalf of current construction projects with total investment has been reduced.
State Council Development Research Center, deputy director of finance Ba that policy over the first half of this reduction with the regulation. He believes that the current interest rates are high but the tightening continues, if the CPI down and smooth until after the stop tightening, GDP growth may have fallen a long time.
BNP Paribas Securities Asia chief economist Chen also believes that the first half of the policy of contraction moving too tight, too fast, leading economic slowdown. He said the slowdown in economic growth now than policy makers predicted more severe, the risk of a hard landing for the economy there.
CASS researcher Yuan Gangming economy more directly, said the government regulation of the CPI is a failure, but led to economic slowdown, if less than 8% GDP growth, China's economy will slide into recession.
Chen Dong Qi, vice president of Macroeconomic Research of National Development and Reform Commission economist with the different point of view. He said that China's economy is indeed slowing down, but the deceleration is normal and reasonable, not excessive due to policy adjustment. He believes that Chinese economy will not be drastic decline, the Government will adjust policies, long-term driving force of economic growth will not disappear.
For the second half of the macro-control, Wang said deceleration means that the policy shift, one from the anti-inflationary macro-control steering to maintain growth, the second is a means of anti-inflation monetary policy shift from fiscal policy.
Of economic growth, Hong Kong University's economics department Lui suggested that control of inflation should increase research in agriculture and more ways to engage in some expansion of agricultural production methods. "Now inflation, if you do not improve the prices of agricultural products, we still feel that consumption more expensive." (Hu Shan)