Integrated media reported on July 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (Energy Information Administration, referred to as EIA) 12 日 forecast 2011 global oil demand will grow 1.65% to 8816 million barrels / day.
As global economic growth slower than expected, the predicted reduction compared with the previous month by 0.3%.
The EIA said: "Crude oil prices remains uncertain, partly due to the risk of oil supply area, such as the Sudan may be turbulence, and OPEC member countries to increase production, and continued to increase production to meet increasing global demand, willingness and ability."
EIA also said that the release of 60 million barrels of oil-consuming countries reserve the coordinated action will help enterprises to meet growing demand and use of stocks. However, these buffer stocks are expected to significantly reduce in 2012, when demand will rise further, non-OPEC supply growth will slow members.
Major industrial countries, such as the United States, is expected in second half of 2011 will spend 7100 million barrels of commercial stocks, with the June forecast of 1.27 billion barrels compared to the decrease.
The second quarter of global demand growth of 1.3% to 8736 million barrels / day. But lower than the previous forecast of 1.9 percent growth. The second quarter, demand from China rose 8.6% to 1011 million barrels / day in non-OECD (OECD) 154 million barrels / day increase in the proportion of more than half.
Expected third-quarter demand growth of 1.8%, lower than the 2 percent forecast in June, China's demand will increase by 12.7%. Fourth quarter of global demand is expected to grow 1.2% to 8883 million barrels / day, Chinese demand will grow by 11.5%.
For the entire 2011, global oil consumption is expected to grow 1.65% to an average of 8816 barrels / day, compared with the June forecast of 27 million barrels less / day. In 2012, global demand is expected to grow by 1.8% to 8974 million barrels / day, of which China's crude oil demand is expected to grow 5.6% to 1042 million barrels / day.
Expected in the fourth quarter OECD commercial crude oil inventories sufficient to meet the 55.7 days of demand for crude oil, with the fourth quarter of 2010 declined slightly compared to 58.1 days.
2011 global real GDP growth of 3.3%, 4.1% lower than in 2010. Predictive value of EIA in June, 3.4%.
The EIA said, Saudi Arabia in June crude oil production increased by 60 million barrels / day to 950 million barrels / day, since August 2008 the highest level. As the world's largest crude oil exporter Saudi Arabia said it would increase the supply to compensate for reduced production due to instability in North Africa. OPEC month all of the increase came from Saudi Arabia, the organization's output was increased to 2958 barrels / day.
Saudi production in June, its spare capacity fell to 275 million barrels / day of two-year low in OPEC 295 million barrels / day of spare capacity in the proportion of over 93%. 2011 at the end of the idle capacity of 400 million barrels from the end of 2010 decreased to 350 million barrels / day. The end of 2012, idle production capacity fell to 310 million barrels / day.
Expected non-OPEC oil supply in 2011 was 54 million barrels / day in 2012 to 74 million barrels / day, the main increase will come from Canada, the United States, Brazil and Colombia.
For the entire 2011, OPEC crude oil production is expected to be reduced by 30 million barrels / day, but is expected to increase in 2012 56 million barrels / day. (Snow South)