"Crazy urea market", the recent frequent ups and downs ups and downs of the urea market performance, the reporter interviewed people in the industry, many people have given such a feeling, "This year compared to previous years and some urea market is not the same."
"The current high prices."
Hubei Sanning Chemical Co., Ltd., said sales manager Mao Guobin, and compared to previous years, this year's fertilizer market has two main characteristics uncertain. First, even with the rising costs to support, but now south of the country 2350 yuan / ton, North 2,300 yuan / ton in the market price or some slightly higher; the second is from May, the urea market has been up suddenly or suddenly, especially North China is yet to start the summer with a fertilizer, poor primary market to accept the goods, the price increases have occurred in times of adversity, "agricultural commodity is fertilizer, although it has also follow the laws of the market, but from past experience, should be more than other commodity prices stable, but this situation is clearly not the case. "
Market transaction but also to the downstream market impact. Mao Guobin told reporters, although now in Hubei and double cropping of cotton fertilizer plant crops, fertilizer period, sales also, but in fact most of the dealers around the hold out, the overall analysis, market fundamentals do not stock this year, the channel's lack of goods resulting in reduced risk-resisting ability of the market, but also to the manufacturers of price adjustment of space, and price volatility has increased the dealer wait and see mood, so that the vicious cycle of market fluctuations.
This argument has been Shandong Huaneng Power Group Co., Ltd. Ye Guoqing, deputy general manager of sales support. He said that according to national statistics, the current stage, the amount of fertilizer than in previous years the whole country down 7 million tonnes. But Ye Guoqing also suggested that the reason why this price is so high, there is now an important factor for farmers, urea retail price is 2200 yuan / ton, or 2,400 yuan / ton to buy is not very affected, because the cost allocated to bag on, and did not increase much, the farmers still acceptable. And experienced a downturn in the market two years ago the manufacturers of nitrogen fertilizer, but also seize every opportunity to naturally very price.
Northern manufacturers waiting time very price
"Now for the Northern manufacturers, we are waiting for more of the market started," Ye Guoqing said that from the beginning on Monday, parts of Shandong, the price of urea rose slightly again. In this regard, his analysis that the dominant manufacturers of very price factors, from the current point of view, the cost factor would not achieve the market price has a direct role in the decision, we adjusted for the price impact of market supply and demand more from.
According to Ye Guoqing analysis, the very reason why the price of the current manufacturers, mainly for post-agricultural market expectations, as Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui downstream agricultural needs are concentrated in mid-July and early August, the amount of fertilizer concentrate and grass-roots did not inventory, dealers are mostly taken as they enter pre-sales strategy and not the goods, so now is the attitude of the factory if not traded in the stock can withstand the pressure within the firm are very price, because once the price down, the Farmers will reserve in advance to suppress the enthusiasm of all the down, post-market operations will be more bad, so now we are all as much as possible to ensure stable market is stable or increased slightly, to ensure the formation starts with the purchasing power of fertilizer.
Afternoon north and south is expected to vary
Although the urea for the current unpredictable market, whether dealers or manufacturers, and more are waiting to see, but for the afternoon, due to time differences are significant fertilizer, manufacturers for the afternoon north and south have different views.
Fertilizer due to the South near the end of the summer, the rainy season, the fertilizer industry decreased, while the previous high price as a good market, most manufacturers are at full capacity, so Mao Guobin judge, there are still about 10-15 days, until the actual market demand , prices will fall.
For the north, east market, fertilizer season is approaching, and will continue until early August, the northern most manufacturers believe that prices will continue high consolidation. Ye Guoqing said that manufacturers are now more concerned about the northern weather changes, droughts and floods occur if you do not, this summer will be a good nitrogen fertilizer market. In addition, they are also concerned about the high impact of nitrogen on the urea market, but he believes that high urea nitrogen to replace the case every year there, but in fact the use of urea is still the mainstream, he believes that a better market will continue to early August.
Surprisingly, because of the recent good domestic market, domestic concern much nitrogen early exit though the window period has been open nearly half months, and compared to previous years, but slightly less popular, both north and south manufacturers have said that the export for fertilizer market this year, meaning that only one of the factors driving as positive, the domestic price and the market will not have much impact. (Zheng Min)