First, the overall operation
Production. First half of 2011, domestic and international economic environment is very complicated in the case of chemical fertilizer production will maintain steady and fast growth momentum. Statistics show that 1-June production of fertilizer (pure, the same below) 30,624,000 tons, an increase of 8.3%; of which 21.536 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer production (pure), an increase of 2.3%; production of 13.368 million tons of urea, an down 4.0%; phosphate fertilizer production 7.173 million tons (P2O5) up 29.8%; yield 1.914 million tons of potash (K2O), an increase of 17.4%.
Market demand. 1-5 months, significantly increased fertilizer demand, the national apparent consumption of fertilizer (pure, the same below) 25,331,000 tons, an increase of 6.9%, of which, the apparent consumption of 10.821 million tons of urea, up went down 0.03%; phosphate Apparent consumption of 5.312 million tons, up 18%; apparent consumption of 2.894 million tons of potash, an increase of 15.1%. Phosphorus, potash consumption increased significantly, and promote the overall increase in fertilizer demand.
Price situation. Market monitoring, in May, the main fertilizer varieties were mixed, the price correction of urea, phosphate, potash rebound, rising fertilizer prices generally steady. Urea market price 1960 yuan / ton, down 2.5% year on year up 21%; DAP price 3410 yuan / ton, up 3.3% year on year rise of 21.4%; domestic average price of 2980 yuan potassium chloride / ton, chain rose 2.8 percent, up 9.6% year on year. June, driven by industrial demand of urea, urea prices still increased significantly, the market price of urea rose to 2,200 yuan / ton. Fertilizer price fluctuations is not obvious.
Imports and exports. 1-5 months total exports of urea, 658,000 tons (physical volume), down 54.8%, exports of DAP 310,000 tons, down 9.8%, imports of 1,524,600 tons of potash (K2O ,1-6-month data), an increase of 18.0%.
Efficiency of the sector situation. 1-4 months, the main business income of nitrogen fertilizer industry, 91.845 billion yuan, profit of 2.905 billion yuan, the profit margin of about 3.16%; phosphate fertilizer industry realized sales revenue of 100.833 billion yuan, total profit of 4.84 billion yuan, the profit margin of about 4.8%.
Second, the economic situation in the second half of forecast
In the second half, the domestic fertilizer peak has passed, the trend of domestic fertilizer demand appeared, with exports to shorten the window period, significant oversupply of urea and DAP prices will fall. However, due to the rigidity of fertilizer demand on the domestic market have a certain stimulus. In the second half, fertilizer production and market demand may be to maintain a steady growth trend.
Estimated annual output of 55 million tons of urea (physical quantity, the same below), down 5.8%, exports are forecast to 400 million tons, down 43%.
1550-1600 ten thousand tons annual production is expected to phosphate (P2O5, the same below), with a slight increase last year, exports of 200 million tons, an increase of 29.8%.
Estimated annual production of 3.9 million tons of potash (K2O, the same below), an increase of 16.5% and imports 5.5 million tons, an increase of 5%.
Third, the main problems
Raw material prices, a substantial increase in the cost of urea, increased loss. Fertilizer production this year of electricity, natural gas, and transportation prices, resulting in significant increase in urea production costs. According to industry association statistics, 1-May, the national average to 1456 yuan plant raw coal / ton over last year rose 340 yuan / ton; fertilizer from natural gas starting in June 2010 about 40% of general adjustment, and continuous supply, According to association statistics, there is still lack of gas cut-off in May, the urea production capacity 10,800 tons / day, accounting for discontinued urea production capacity by 30.6%. The first half of this year, companies operating at only 76.5% of urea, total production was only 84.3% to play.
Sulfur prices, leading to phosphate fertilizer production costs. The current domestic price of sulfur has reached 1,800 yuan / ton, and foreign price $ 265 / ton flat. Association to reflect, Sinopec purchases high sulfur, sulfur raise domestic prices has seriously affected the practice of the domestic fertilizer industry safety.
Potassium transport difficulties, the product backlog. China's potash resources are mainly distributed in Qinghai and Xinjiang, two regions, its potash production accounts for 95% of the country. According to the association reflects the current Qinghai, Xinjiang, two potash rail transport difficulties, the backlog of more products. As of the end of June, Qinghai potash backlog of 1.8 million tons of potash in Xinjiang backlog of 180,000 tons.