In September, the number of China's coal imports hit a new monthly high, reaching 19.12 million tons, compared with 16.59 million tons in August to increase 2.53 million tons, an increase of 15.25% over last year's 15.32 million tons 380 million tons, up 24.8% . Analysis of the industry, increased coal imports will put some pressure on domestic coal pricing, coal price stability conducive to winter, while coal prices on international markets will be a certain support.
Imports hit new monthly high
September this year, China imported 19.12 million tons of coal, not only the number of new monthly record high this year, also hit China's imports of coal in a single month record high imports.
Wind information according to the data, prior to May 2009, the number of months of imports of coal in China has been under 10 million tons, in June 2009 exceeded one thousand tons mark in one fell swoop imports reached 16.07 million tons, after the last shock up, September 2011 month exceeded 19 million tons. In contrast, coal exports continued to decrease in the number actually was the trend, exports in September 2011 only 1.21 million tons in September 2003 has exceeded 10 million tons.
From the total quantity terms, from January to September this year, China imported a total of 123.43 million tons of coal, compared with 1-8 months of this year, up 9.92% of 104.39 million tons. From January to September this year, total exports of 12.12 million tons of coal only. That is, the first nine months of this year China's net imports of coal, 111,310,000 tons, up nine months of 2010, net imports of coal increased 4.24%.
Domestic and international coal price changes are not synchronized
The emergence of China's coal import and export of such a large number of changes, mainly associated with China's economic development and improved living standards, consumer demand for energy continues to grow, domestic coal prices rose sharply, while the international market price of coal, although there increased substantially, but often not synchronized with changes in domestic prices, providing the opportunity to domestic and imported.
This year, China's thermal coal prices continued to shock upstream. Currently, the Qinhuangdao Port price of Shanxi excellent mix of positions reached 855 yuan / ton, Guangzhou, Hong Kong Shanxi excellent mix (5500 card) price of 975 yuan / ton. The 5500 Indonesia thermal coal card Guangzhou port bilge tax price is currently 840 yuan / ton. For China's southeast coastal areas, in terms of Qinhuangdao Port coal from South East Asia such as Indonesia and there is no essential difference, the key depends on the market price of coal and freight charges with the contrast, the right price in the current case, the import coal as an inevitable choice in these areas.
Before 2008, China has been a net exporter of coal in 2008, when China's net coal exports 50.3 million tons (net exports of 2.15 million tons in 2007). In 2009 a fundamental change in the import and export situation of China's net coal exports from the country into a net importer in 2009, when net imports reached 103.43 million tons. 2010, China's net imports increased to 145.75 million tons more. In the first nine months of net imports of 111.31 million tons is expected this year is likely to exceed 2010.
Conducive to stability season price of coal
China's coal imports to increase, on the one hand, the international coal market will support a certain price, this international coal prices are likely to stabilize; the other hand, domestic coal prices will be a certain pressure, favorable and stable coal prices coal season .
Since the late mid-September, Qinhuangdao coal prices have risen, in addition to the Datong-Qinhuangdao line maintenance affect certain capacity, the increased demand for coal is an important factor in the peak season, including the thermal power plant coal preparation, coal and other northern winter heating equipment. Currently, due to uncertainty in the international economic situation, the international oil price shocks, the short term is unlikely to international coal prices rose sharply in the current price volatility is likely, therefore, the number of imported coal is expected to be not significantly reduced. And there are a lot of imported coal, the coal price is the impact of changes in the peak season this year, one important factor, to a certain extent, the rise of the coal formation pressure.
In the future situation, our country became a net importer of coal is unlikely to reverse the situation, and is likely to be a steadily increasing trend. Reason is still China's sustained economic development and people's living standards improved, including coal, increasing energy demand. Although China's domestic supply is still and will remain to meet the main force of China's coal demand, but because of China's large economic size, the coal supply and demand are unevenly distributed geographically, import some coal is necessary. Of course, the amount of imports, mainly depend on the local domestic prices and international prices and compare. (Cai Rong)