United Nations Economic and Social Affairs at United Nations Headquarters in New York, 1, released in "2012 World Economic Situation and Prospects" in the first chapter of part of the global economic outlook, the report pointed out that the world economy second bottom likely.
Report in accordance with three different sets of preconditions for future economic prospects of the baseline, pessimistic and optimistic forecasts three scenarios, but the optimistic scenario is unlikely.
Reported that the United Nations baseline forecast scenario, assuming an orderly solution to Europe to Greece and other countries of the debt crisis, the crisis of control in a few countries, and assume that the United States and other major developed countries to introduce a viable long-term financial integrated solution, in this case fairly decent, the world's GDP growth in 2012 will be 2.6 percent, a figure lower than the preliminary estimate of 2011 growth rate of 2.8%, well below 4% in 2010 the growth rate.
Reported that, according to the pessimistic forecast of the program - including the European sovereign debt problems of confusion and disorder that further monetary tightening, the developed countries will enter a new round of recession, while the global economy will fall into a state of near stagnation. According to pessimistic scenario, the world economy in 2012 grew by only 0.5%, is expected to reach 2.2% in 2013.
According to the report given by the benchmark scenario, the pace of development in developing countries will fall, and the growth rate of 7.5 percent in 2010 compared to 2012 and the report predicts that by 2013 developing countries' economic growth rate of 5.6% and 5.9 %. Meanwhile, developed countries overall economic growth rate expected in the two years of 1.3% and 1.9%, these data than the forecast six months ago, the UN is lower.
In the two years 2012, 2013, the report forecast U.S. economic growth benchmarks were 1.5% and 2.0%, EU 0.7% and 1.7%, China 8.7% and 8.5%.
However, if the program according to pessimistic forecasts, all of the above projections have declined, the United States, Europe, Russia and other economies will be negative growth.
Involved in the production of the report, director of the UN global economic monitoring agency told reporters extraordinary flood, in 2012 the world economy faces major uncertainties and risks mainly from developed countries. The risk of sovereign debt of these countries, the vulnerability of the financial system, low growth and high unemployment, and policy on the subject of political space and economic constraints, has been formed between the four vicious interaction. These risk factors can not only developed into another recession, but also through international trade and international financial channels such as a serious threat to the developing countries' economic growth and stability.
Hung said ordinary, in fact, the euro currency regime facing a historic challenge. Behind the single currency, and other aspects of the integration process, in particular, financial integration lags well behind. Europe have a choice: either to accelerate the integration of financial and other aspects of the process, or face monetary integration of the back, that breakup of the eurozone. Fall behind, it is difficult to maintain the status quo.
Dr. Hung extraordinary, once Europe's sovereign debt crisis out of control, the region's commercial banks will suffer huge losses, caused by the credit crunch, is likely to lead to a similar 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy caused by the financial market collapse. The results will enable the European economy into recession, and affect other countries. "This is very risky." He said.
Ordinary Hong also pointed out that the U.S. economy into recession, the risk of another round of great. If the spread of European sovereign debt crisis, U.S. banks will suffer great loss. However, the United States into another round of recession risk is mainly from domestic political decision-making possible "paralysis."
He pointed out that if Europe and the United States at the same time into a new round of economic recession, other countries will be seriously affected. In the United Nations "pessimistic scenario", if the risk becomes reality, the European economy in 2012 may decline by 1.6%, 0.8% of the U.S. recession. By their influence, growth in developing countries from 6.1% in 2011, fell sharply to 3.6% in 2012. Global economic growth will decline to 0.5%, per capita income to measure the global economy into recession.