Winter, fertilizer prices have been uncertain, it was speculated whether next year's fertilizer export tariffs will increase efforts to control, especially for two-element compound fertilizer, heavy calcium carbonate, ammonium chloride and other small varieties of export tariffs, subject to the industry of concern.
According to market sources said current tariff policy in 2012 have been identified, ammonium phosphate and urea export tariffs not changed, a small nitrogen fertilizers export tariff adjustments consistent with the urea, the second time and the elements of fertilizer off-season export tariffs consistent with ammonium phosphate.
At least one analyst told reporters after that if certain this is true, next year is still optimistic about the market-based fertilizer.
Fertilizer export tariffs resulting in a low blow
According to National Bureau of Statistics, January-September this year, the total fertilizer production in China reached 46.06 million tons, an increase of 11.9% in September month increase of 16.2%.
In recent years, with the further expansion of fertilizer production and export resources to become an important way of digestion. Fertilizer as coal, natural gas directly downstream products, the state has a corresponding policy limits, the annual difference between seasonal tariffs, effective control over exports. However, the export policy has always been controversial, this year focused on two controversial elements of nitrogen fertilizer, and small, small package of fertilizer exports.
Fertilizer export tariffs will directly affect the domestic fertilizer prices and supply. Over the years, countries are in line with domestic supply, to protect the principles of domestic resources to develop the export of domestic policy. But by the last two elements of fertilizer and other chemical fertilizer exports more desirable species, the domestic part of the fertilizer price is too high.
2011 exports of ammonium phosphate and urea off-season months are adjusted to four months, and the base price lower than a certain 2010 can be said, to a certain extent, limit the export of ammonium phosphate and urea, to ensure the domestic supply. However, nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer export tariffs on two elements over the years were 7%, which to some extent caused by the 2011 two-element compound fertilizer exports blowout. As of October of this year, total domestic exports of two-element compound fertilizer 2.95 million tons. The 2009 and 2010, respectively, two-element compound fertilizer exports to 75,000 tons and 750,000 tons. This is to some extent caused by the domestic fertilizer supply.
Preparation of fertilizer needed long-term care
According to market sources said on November 29, the State Council Tariff Commission Eighth Plenary Session of the 2012 tariff of some of the resolutions, preliminary information for the next year will be ammonium chloride, binary fat, heavy calcium carbonate, 10 kg small tax package, binary, and triple superphosphate fertilizer exports and export policy of ammonium phosphate, 110% for the season, season 7% of the tariff policy, the export period is June to September; small packaging and export of ammonium chloride and nitrogen export policies consistent 110% of peak tariffs, 7% of the off-season tariffs, export period of July-October.
"Should this news is true, next year the main fertilizer market is still optimistic." Analyst, told reporters.
With the onset of winter, is still rising coal prices, gas prices likely to rise, coupled with the current energy tax, electricity, labor, safety and environmental protection costs are all rising, rising raw material prices, making this year our urea production costs jumped to a new level. Some companies have resources, the total cost of urea in 1800-1900 yuan / ton, while there are still a number of business costs even in the 2050-2100 yuan / ton high. "From the perspective of raw materials and fertilizer products, the price decline in the short term has little room." Analysts said.
Fertilizers for agricultural production, services, agricultural fertilizer market prices on the formation of the most powerful support. National Development and Reform Commission to continue the implementation of major wheat producing areas in the minimum purchase price policy, and an appropriate increase in the minimum purchase price of the 2012 level, making China's wheat price protection hundred mark the first time, the minimum purchase price of rice is expected next year will continue up. Meanwhile, the intensity of the state agricultural subsidies are increasing, which will help increase farmers' income, to mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers, the fertilizer market is also a big plus. "This year, China's grain production is the eighth consecutive year, sustained and steady growth of domestic demand for fertilizer prices to create a strong positive support."
Another positive factor is the international urea prices high. As the international prices of agricultural products rose sharply, increasing the demand for urea, the market supply. "As of October, a total of two-element compound fertilizer export 2.95 million tons, and four months from June to September exported 1.93 million tons, accounting for 1-10 months of this year, 65.4% of total export volume, export restrictions for the two-element compound fertilizer limited impact on exports. "analysts said.
While optimistic about next year fertilizer prices, but analysts also said that next year the market there are still many uncertainties, such as next year's economic situation is complicated, high domestic prices of raw materials also needs the ability to attract foreign and domestic high steady compound fertilizer prices will curb domestic demand, etc., are unknown factors, "Preparation of fertilizer needed long-term care." (Cao Fengqin)