2012, if Iran situation is stable, with the restoration of Libya's oil production, geopolitical factors, the impact on international oil prices will weaken. "China Petroleum University, China Energy Strategy Research Center Executive Director Wang Zhen in the" Finance News "reporter interview to judge," This year is expected to decline in international oil price is expected to light the U.S. West Texas (WTI) crude oil futures prices at 80-90 U.S. dollars per barrel fluctuations, North Sea Brent crude oil futures prices will return to below $ 100 a barrel, and both spreads will narrow. "
Wang Zhen pointed out that in 2011 crude oil supply factors than demand factors led oil price volatility. From the supply side perspective, in 2011 OPEC production levels are still high, there is no significant production. Although Libya's oil production accounts for a limited share of the international oil market, but its oil production plummeted, or break the fragile balance of international crude oil supply and demand, and making international oil prices have been at record levels.
International oil prices for 2012, Wang Zhen believes that if there is no risk of an event, the European debt crisis is not a fundamental solution, European and American markets for crude oil demand next year will remain weak state, crude oil demand will not afford to support such a high level of oil prices level, there is room for fall.
But he also said, in 2012, market uncertainties, the biggest uncertainty is the supply of variables from the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Can be expected that the 2012 Libyan crude oil supply will be gradually restored. Because Syria is not an important oil-producing countries, the situation in Syria, a limited impact on oil supplies. In view of this, the situation in Iran will be the largest uncertainties.
Iran is the Middle East, geopolitical, military stronger, the U.S. will not be treated like other Middle Eastern countries go to war against Iran. So in 2012 the two sides will tense, but not misfires. Therefore, to reduce Iran's crude oil supply because of the war less likely, but the US-Iraq and Commander will stage the short term oil prices higher.
From the monetary point of view, that Wang Zhen, 2012, the Federal Reserve will continue to implement quantitative easing of monetary policy, will decide whether to continue to rise in international oil prices one of the factors.
From the exchange perspective, a stronger dollar will become long-term trend, although the strong dollar than the euro, the dollar does not have the continued strength of the conditions, volatility in 2012 dollars is not the dollar exchange rate changes have limited impact on international oil prices.
Therefore, Wang Zhen judge, international oil prices will decline this year, but are still running high and volatile, and volatility will increase.
In 2011, China surpassed the United States dependence on crude oil, oil prices hovering high, volatility increases the threat of China's energy security.
Wang Zhen said: "China has set up strategic oil reserves, is implementing the second phase and third phase has also been planned, anti-risk ability, be improved, but like the United States want to achieve 90 days of strategic reserves, I am afraid take a decade or so. "
"This year, international oil prices or a return to 80-90 U.S. dollars range, which will help ease domestic fuel shortages, and a new oil pricing mechanism to bring relaxed external environment, but this will not change China's oil demand growth, China's future dependence on foreign oil will be further increased. "
"China's energy structure with coal as the dominant, but the steady decline in the amount of coal led to the development of new varieties of alternative energy sources present in the energy structure, adjustment of crude oil this room is very small, weak economic foundation of new energy development, the only can expect that natural gas resources in 2011, the global energy market set off a shale natural gas heat, China's development potential in this one is very large, so the natural gas price reform should be accelerated, and all sectors of society should pay more attention to natural resources planning to use. "