On the 28th, the State Council Development Research Center, deputy director Liu Shijin Taurus Fund Forum, said China's economic growth this year should be can be maintained in more than 8 percent economic growth may be stabilized in the second quarter, but since then whether the rebound can not be determined. He proposed that the policy space of the current demand level is not great, should pay more attention to the supply level policies to promote the reform of the electricity, railways, oil and other basic sectors.
Economic uncertainty
Liu Shijin said that economic data from the first two months of this year, China's economic growth has continued the down trend uncertainty than ever before. Scale industrial added value year-on-year increase of 11.4 percent in January-February, taking into account the leap year factors, the actual decline rate of industrial added value is greater. The first two months of fixed assets investment up 21.5%, down 2.3 percentage points higher than last year, investment in infrastructure, the growth rate of -1.5% is a major factor in declining growth rate of investment as a whole.
He believes that the industry concerns about the risk of local financing platform and real estate, reflecting the uncertainty of future financial return, which is actually doubts about the potential growth rate. Can learn from international experience and China's growth in the next two to three years, China's economic potential growth is likely to a new level, experienced rapid growth to speed growth stage conversion. From the first two months of data, but also seem to suggest that this growth phase of the conversion has already begun.
"This year's economic growth remains above 8%, it should be said that there is a potential and possible." Liu Shijin mentioned that economic growth may stabilize in the second quarter of this year, but after that ability to rebound is uncertain. In terms of investment, should be changed to a negative growth of investment in infrastructure, it rebounded. The current housing sales growth slowing, real estate investment does not appear that a marked decline in growth is very important to stabilize the investment.
Consumption, Liu Shijin, automobile production and sales recovery will be an important factor, this change has not yet appeared, and can expect the car consumption has improved remarkably in the next few months.
External demand, the current developed economies, there have been positive signs, the euro-zone growth is not expected worse, the growth in the U.S., Japan, which China's export more favorable than expected. Annual export growth in China is expected to reach 10-15%, export growth will be driven by domestic investment in equipment investment growth is also a positive factor.
Focus on the supply of reform-oriented policies
Liu Shijin believe that price pressure is temporarily slowed throughout the year can be controlled below 4%. But the pressure on agricultural prices and international oil prices persists, the future price movements, there is still much uncertainty. China for a long period of time, are faced with the obvious cost-push inflationary pressures.
For the macro-control, said Liu Shijin, monetary policy on the basis of pre-tight can be relaxed, for example, continue to cut the deposit reserve ratio, but can not be expected to once again to maintain growth and loose monetary policy. Fiscal policy, structural tax reduction of space indeed, but can not be overestimated. In addition to the needs of policy, to pay Liu Shijin believe that the future should be based on the price of investment "dual release" as the focus, and promote the reform of basic sectors. Such reforms to increase supply, while creating investment demand. In addition, through the strengthening of competition, lower costs, ease the upward pressure on factor prices. The first is the power industry, prices will not ring true to the power starts and inadequate investment in the future on the one hand to sort out the price, on the other hand the introduction of market competition in power generation and other sectors; followed by the railway industry, liberalization of market access to appropriate projects to attract investors, the reform of the railway system should be put on the agenda; oil industry gradually liberalized imports of crude oil, and competitive pricing. In addition, the financial sector but also actively and steadily promote the reform of the interest rate market.