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International oil prices to record lows during the year, early next month, or greet the oil down the window
Source:China Fertilizer   Time:2012-05-16   Read:984second  

 Local time on the 14th, the New York oil prices and the Brent oil prices both fell, New York oil prices closed down 1.4 percent, closing price of $ 94.78 a barrel, the lowest closing price of the highest in five months. Thus the rate of change of international oil prices continued to fall by 1.32%. Market institutions, international oil prices remain at that level, at the end of the international oil prices to the rate of change can be broken by 4%, June 8, could once again usher in the domestic oil prices down window. 

European debt crisis in reproduction caused by the drop in oil prices 
International oil prices fell for two consecutive days since last Friday. Analysis, the three major political parties of Greece cabinet setback, causing the market to its debt default and exit the euro area concerns. Market risk aversion is a serious outflow of funds to the commodity market, and seek the dollar market, hedge, nearly two weeks since the U.S. dollar index continued to rebound from 78.603 points, exceeded 80 points. 
Corresponding to the crude oil futures reproduce fell, New York oil prices hit an intraday $ 94.59 a barrel on the 14th, the closing price of $ 94.78 a barrel, a five-month low. 
Prior to this, the early morning of May 10, due to international oil prices to the rate of change breaking -4%, the country ushered in during the year for the first time the refined oil prices are down. However, on the 11th, the 14th international oil prices continue to fall. New York oil prices, for example, so far this month, New York, oil prices fell 9.6 percent. Oil prices fell 1 percent in New York last Friday, a weekly decline of 2.4%. Thus directly contributing to the rate of change of the three oil prices continuing to fall, now down to -1.32%. 
Three changes in oil prices the fastest rate breaking 4 percent at the end of 
The future trend of international oil prices is difficult to judge, but if the European debt problem is not resolved, the international oil price continues at the current level, the fastest at the end of this month, the international oil prices to the rate of change may exceed 4%. "Analysts said. Since the last oil price adjustment in the early morning of May 10, around June 8 in order to meet the 22 working day conditions, that is June 8 price adjustment window to open. 
The data show that as of the 14th, three places the rate of change of oil prices fell 1.03 percent. The same forecast that domestic oil prices may cut again early next month. 
Oil price adjustment in accordance with the Development and Reform Commission previously announced, when international oil prices for 22 days moving rate of change of 4%, the domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted. 
Oil down the user is still "thirst" 
This year, China's refined oil prices are up and down, after the May 10 domestic refined oil prices are down, many consumers and oil big still calls "to quench their thirst". 
"This time, oil prices down is not enough to quench their thirst in the future if the price would be best." Zhengqi Bin, general manager of Chengdu ant Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters, after the oil price hike in March, the company's monthly oil expenses new , equivalent to only 30,000 yuan, the lower the monthly fuel costs reduced by 1.5 million. 
"Expect", many people in the industry is not impossible to achieve. Eastern oil and gas network analyst Cheng Ruifeng said that if the Brent oil price maintained at $ 113 / barrel to early June, the domestic price of oil down the window or re-open. 
Oil & Gas Association Oil Minister, Guangdong Province, Yao Daming, also believes that if international oil prices remain in the doldrums, China in June or usher in the year oil prices down, the specific market judgment may be to late May will be clear. 
If the cycle is shortened can be lowered as soon as possible 
May 10, domestic oil prices down, the market expectations of a new pricing mechanism had not been followed the introduction of the Development and Reform Commission announced only the oil price decline did not mention pricing mechanism will be announced. Early next month, the domestic refined oil prices and then successfully lowered, but also will set domestic oil prices in recent years a rare two consecutive down. By then, the new pricing mechanism is expected to introduce? 
Analysts said the new pricing mechanism can determine the important reform is to reduce the price adjustment cycle, in order to this, for example, Although the market is expected by the end of May, the rate of change of -4%, but failed to meet the conditions of 22 days, oil prices will not be adjusted downwards. Adjusting period is shortened to about 10 days can be achieved as soon as possible downward adjustment in oil prices. 
He pointed out that the current international oil prices still high, Development and Reform Commission is very cautious in the timing of the new pricing mechanism introduced to require that oil prices remain low, otherwise will only lead to the accelerated rise in domestic oil prices at a high level when introduced, the public can not accept.
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