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Attracted the attention of the fertilizer sector due to the recent drought in the international food prices, the mainstream view is: the drought resulted in higher food prices, will further promote the next growing season, with the increase in the amount of fertilizer, and eventually is expected to boost fertilizer prices .
For future price movements of agricultural products, spread out in two different voices: one is the World Bank, FAO representatives "pessimists" that future food prices, food supply and demand expressed fears, such as the World Bank published reports that food prices observed by the United States and Eastern Europe, the impact of the drought, high temperatures, 7 to August global food prices rose sharply, despite the recent countries to have a certain rainfall, but it was too late, food production is a foregone conclusion.
Its opposite is "optimistic", this part of the study of agriculture and food experts held view is that this more than half a century of the most serious drought will have a significant impact on the world grain market, but food prices and supply situation is very different in 2008, asserted that the arrival of a new food crisis there is no basis to the United States, for example, although affected by drought, corn and soybeans both agricultural prices rise shock, but wheat agricultural products of rice represented by an adequate supply and stable prices, and crude oil, fertilizer and international transport prices lower than in 2008, many said the food crisis seems to be a bit alarmist. Also, the study believe that the reason why the prices of agricultural products rose so fast, in addition to weather, the other a great relationship with the international hot money speculation, especially in the four major food supplier for representatives of major grain trading giant.
Head to look at food prices and fertilizer prices, the domestic corn futures price and the market price of DAP contrast from the past five years, the trend analysis, DAP prices fluctuate significantly from 2008 to 2009, nearly three years after the time stabilized; corn futures prices higher overall performance trends, no significant correlation between the two.
That the traditional analysis, food prices and fertilizer prices are closely related, its supporting reasons are: higher food prices will stimulate the increase of farmers' agricultural inputs, especially in fertilizer, particularly evident; increase in the amount of chemical fertilizer will further stimulate higher fertilizer prices, and inhibition of farmers to buy fertilizer enthusiasm, so between the two should be negatively correlated with performance. From the chart analysis between the two is not entirely negative trend, therefore further believes that the level of food price changes, the price of fertilizer high correlation.
Author do a simple analysis of food prices and fertilizer prices, can be used to explain the basic viewpoints of grain prices and fertilizer prices contrary, traditionally considered a negative view of the price of grain prices and fertilizer, the author, is useful may be a gimmick to promote fertilizer sales.
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