The recent fertilizer market overview: fertilizer production continues to grow; increased imports, falling exports and rising; inventory; increase the possibility of market volatility. Fertilizer 13.7% year-on-year growth in the first three quarters,. Urea, phosphate, potash production to 49.8 million tons, 15.84 million tons and 400 million tons respectively. 

Nitrogen fertilizer production is concentrated to the coal resources places. Exports, urea exports increased by 36.2% year-on-year, DAP export volume fell by 6.3%, the monoammonium phosphate exports fell 51.2%. 

Imports, imported a total of 7.23 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 24%. Potassium chloride imports of 5.58 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 16.7%. 

The rise in inventories. The statistics show that of the national supply and marketing cooperatives, fertilizer stocks as of the end of September, the supply and marketing cooperatives 19.97 million tons, an increase of 19.7%. Enzymes increased 9.8%, and by 37.1% potash, diammonium phosphate by 7.8%. 

For the current fertilizer market, I have the following observations: 

The first, due to the huge amount of supply or demand small changes are likely to bring supply and demand imbalance. 

Second, the new year light storage work smoothly, will ease the financial pressure. 

Third, the fertilizer export tariff policy is expected to be generally stable, and the fertilizer exports next year will implement the export policies of the short season. National authorities concerned about industry enterprises are facing some difficulties, the current annual export tariff scheme is soliciting opinions from all sides, and is expected to fertilizer export tariff policy will generally stable. Do not listen to rumors. 

Currently, we are concerned about the export of phosphate fertilizer policy ongoing consultations and adjustments, please be patient. There will be no major changes in the overall framework. 

Fourth, fertilizer low tariffs on the export window period forward impact on the market is large, will change the situation in the fourth quarter of each year of high fertilizer prices to avoid plowing season with a fertilizer market price is too high. 

Fifth, the business should be reflected in the short season differences to promote industry-wide benign. Enterprise back to previous years to the era of poor seasonal price.