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The urea export of optimism is premature
Source:China fertilizer   Author:Wu Ning   Time:2013-01-29   Read:1439second  

China Customs announced last week, in December last year, China's exports amounted to 1.66 million tons of urea, the total annual exports reached 6.95 million tons in 2012. This number nearly doubled compared to 2011's figures doubled, the second highest annual export volume beyond everyone's expectations. The the international urea production overcapacity contradiction is gradually emerging as the world's highest production costs in China urea, and will continue to be a challenge from the Arabian Gulf, Yuzhnyy urea. Therefore, the Chinese urea export optimism is also too early to say. 

According to the new tariff policy in 2013, the country is a relaxation of export restrictions for fertilizer, 200 yuan per ton urea export costs fell this year, the Chinese the urea export market expected optimistic. In January, the rumors, traders have set a small amount of urea, this behavior is no doubt there is a huge risk. 

According to the customs statistics, last year Chinese urea export flows to India, 3.33 million tons and 474,000 tons, the United States 403,000 tons, Mexico, South Korea 317,000 tons and 310,000 tons, Pakistan, Chile, 299,000 tons and 237,000 tons, Vietnam, Bangladesh 226,000 tons. 

India as China's main export markets of urea, imported a total of 6.95 million tons of urea in 2012. In recent years, India's domestic fertilizer subsidy policy change, but to take full subsidy policy for urea has been the country's total consumption of urea remained at 22 million tons. 2013/2014 fiscal year, the country's Ministry of Finance proposal to raise the retail price of urea by 10%. If this program is implemented, will affect this year, India's imports of urea. Chinese exports to India urea has a natural geographical advantage, urea production capacity in the Middle East continues to expand, China's urea export prices are constantly being challenged. 

In addition, with the new capacity gradually put into production, the contradiction between supply and demand of domestic urea further increase China urea has also increased the number of exports to the Americas, China's exports to the Americas in 2012 to about 140 million tons of urea. U.S. shale gas outbreak last year, announced the fourth quarter, a number of international companies in the United States voted to build a urea project. In the next few years, as these projects are gradually put into the competitiveness of Chinese urea in the Americas will be weakened. The near term, according to the currently signed orders in the period from July 2012 to February 2013, there will be 4.1 million tons of granular urea to be delivered to the United States, a year-on-year growth of 38%. This means that most of the spring market demand has to shipped this year, the highest price of U.S. urea market is difficult to reach last year's level.

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