Domestic refined oil during the first up is finally the first day after the Lantern Festival, the dust has settled, domestic and more oil to return to "8 times. However, the international oil prices in recent days frequently fell staged a domestic and foreign oil "runs counter to the" strange phenomenon.
The industry believes that the oil antagonistic phenomenon occurred mainly because of the ills of the current refined oil pricing mechanism at play. It is understood that the new oil pricing mechanism earliest possible time after two sessions "landing", the new mechanism will be the price adjustment period, the price adjustment with reference to the magnitude of the standard, anchored to the crude oil types, information dissemination channels in four areas to make adjustments.
Domestic rise in oil prices abroad or
2013 refined oil price adjustment for the first time can be described as the "twists and turns". As early as February 15, the three oil changes in rate topped 4% of the red line, the price adjustment window opens. However, taking into account factors such as holidays and Spring Festival, National Development and Reform Commission has not yet been announced price adjustment. In tune or not to tune tangled, the international crude oil futures prices turned to diving, on Feb. 20, the 21st consecutive day of decline. After that, the Development and Reform Commission, "hastily" in the Lantern Festival late on the evening of February 24 announced that the price adjustment, the Development and Reform Commission for the first time in history in a non-working day release price adjustment instructions.
"Last week in international oil prices drop, if not timely price adjustment, three oil changes in rate may fall below 4%, the price adjustment will be difficult to shape." Social business of refined oil analyst Li pointed out. Senior market analyst at the Economic Research Institute of PetroChina Overall, 2,3 month international oil prices will continue on the basis of in January rose slightly. OPEC stable prices, investors' increased confidence in the global economy and the continuing instability in the Middle East lead to three major international oil prices since January of this year, and these factors will continue to support 2,3 month of movements in oil prices. "
Highlight the shortcomings of the old mechanism
Domestic and international oil prices, "runs counter to" the phenomenon no doubt once again exposed to all the disadvantages of the current pricing mechanism.
Since the current refined oil pricing schemes Enforcement, the domestic refined oil retail prices experienced a total of 22 times to adjust, which raised 14 times, 8 times lower. Gasoline cumulative gains of 3100 yuan / ton, diesel cumulative gains of 3020 yuan / ton. Zhongyu information analyst Wang Jintao that, despite the way to promote a more market-oriented domestic refined oil pricing mechanism inherent problems gradually revealed. Especially in recent years, in the environment of high domestic inflation pressures, refined oil pricing mechanism did not show enough to adjust the role of the market, due to the conduction of the refined oil industry became the magnifying glass of inflation around frequent "oil shortage" also attracted parties questioned.
In his view, the drawbacks of the current pricing mechanism is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, the "22 days" Pricing longer period, the price adjustment time lag, and the long cycle of the domestic oil market also have sufficient time to make the expected, thus refined oil market speculation, the Tuen oil arbitrage behavior; "4%" AM will not result in over a period of time the oil price hike and down, the pricing mechanism for refined oil prices rising too fast actually exacerbate; Third, "Cinta crude oil as affiliated crude kind reference value decline, dropped significantly in recent years, the number of China's crude oil imports from Indonesia, crude oil imports from the point of view," Cinta crude oil has not much reference value.
"In addition, the living conditions of the current oil price adjustment to private enterprise, and the fundamentals of the market supply and demand considerations inadequate." Wang Jintao said that the provisions of the wholesale and retail price of 300 yuan per ton, "the current pricing mechanism, but the actual implementation is not better. 2010 diesel shortage in the monopoly of state-run oil firms to increase the amount of direct marketing and retail, continued to control the amount of the wholesale segment, to a certain extent, exacerbated the tensions in the social flow of resources.
New mechanism, in contrast
"In fact, the new mechanism program have already been made, but has not selected a suitable point in time to launch." Of a domestic oil industry experts have said that the China Securities Journal reporter.
Currently, the industry is expected to reform of the main points of the new mechanism will mainly focus on the following four aspects: First, shorten the pricing cycle, such as the 22 days shorten to 10 days; second is the "4%" price adjustment standard adjustment for more reasonable percentage; change crude oil anchored species, retention of Brent, Dubai and remove Cinta, the introduction of new affiliated oil types; Fourth, the introduction of third-party national media regularly publish price adjustment information in the pricing mechanism, and pricing delegated to the three major oil are less likely.
"The new mechanism may choose two sessions this year, after the introduction of six off-season demand for diesel in July." Cho, information analyst Hu Huichun expected, the overall inflation in the first half of this year, the situation is slightly better in the first two years, and lay the foundation for the introduction of new mechanisms ; the other hand, it is expected that a longer period of time, WTI oil price shocks between 80-110 dollars / barrel, a new mechanism in this price range is also relatively reasonable.