To late May, the domestic urea market apparent confusion is still difficult to distinguish price up down trend impermanence. Only urea companies offer early speculation can indeed be identified as the "price does not figure off." That is, fast and lack of reason to hike the price of urea, does not seek to bring the number of sales, but to give themselves leave room for price cuts this month, and ultimately achieve the purpose of the flat with the previous price. This may well be the best off-season of urea price stabilization measures. But even so, the latter part of the urea prices could not turning around. The current market supply and demand and the cost of supporting two considerations, the long-term trend of urea temporarily bearish. And does not seem to find a good solution, perhaps a lot of people in the industry can raise the pessimists summer fertilizer as well as off-season export good game. Indeed, the market has been the lack of such demand to support, just too weak positive only being questioned and become useless.

Similar to the student learned the main factors, secondary factors, the same is true of the current urea market. The above-mentioned summer fertilizer, off-season export or industrial demand and so a series of favorable probably only be counted as a secondary factor; principal factors depends on the supply and demand environment, the cost of supporting two aspects. Therefore, the main cause of times, only might be icing on the cake, it is difficult to reverse global.

Nitrogen Association was convened last week for the market supply and demand environment, domestic urea production corporate executives to discuss how to deal with the plight of the industry and the limited production price recommendations. Objective analysis, to reduce urea enterprises operating rate is indeed the most effective way to make prices stabilized, but from the the manufacturers operating point of view, it seems no one is willing to accept the stop or cut, limited production price is more like empty talk. However, it can be considered to convey a signal; either lowering production or price. In fact, in the context of market economy, the urea Industry moment is price competition among both old and new urea enterprises are in constant pursuit of low-cost technology and other aspects. In particular, the new production of urea project in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places, the cost is very competitive. The intention is to use the means of price competition forced to stop the part of manufacturers. In other words, the limited production price does not represent the wishes of the whole industry, and would like to see the outcome of price competition for a lot of people.

Bring low-cost price advantage is not industry-wide for the optimization of the production process, reduce the cost due to coal price indeed be described as the key issue of the lack of support the current price. It is understood that since the coal market weakness in the second half of 2012 has seen a northern winter heating alleviate some pressure, but the excess coal production capacity, production increased lasts for more than the amount of increase in demand, which led to continued weakness in the coal market, supply and demand imbalance, serious backlog of inventory . Some industry insiders and asserted: coal golden decade has passed, the late worrying trend. For the urea industry can be said to be a unexpected calamities. North anthracite to the factory price fell below 1,200 yuan / ton, the mainstream coal-based urea enterprises generally cost only 1800-1850 yuan / ton. This calculation, if the coal continued to decline, the urea with down only a matter of.

As a whole, whether it is looking forward to the price competition or coal with production costs down, indicates that the urea industry's future Zoudie the trend. Of course, it is undeniable at this stage there are still agricultural, industrial domestic procurement, but for the price support is nothing more than just the recent ups and downs of such alternate market dealer operational risk. In addition, the off-season export topic also lost the heat, on the one hand is probably due to the more than 150 million tons of port stocks is bound to lead to the latter part of the price competition; the other hand, because the business does not endorse the window period or will be close to $ 330 FOB price. At least for now, the domestic urea market is in a state of excess supply and demand, dealers buyout operation to avoid inventory Fed action also need to do Kuaijinkuaichu. Long-term prices of urea temporary bearish.