Into July, the urea market in the summer demand driven agricultural fertilizer, prices continued to rise. Shandong, for example, only 4-5 days, prices rose 100 yuan / ton, the mainstream prices quickly rose to 1,800 yuan / ton. According to market feedback, continued price increases in the process, getting goods dealers enthusiasm was ignited, the market downturn has also ushered in returning to the fiery. Enter the second week of July, however, this rally will quickly be reversed, only two days time, Shandong dropped back again, the mainstream ex-factory price 1700 yuan / ton, the market will no longer hit, dealers confidence has been badly hit. Due to the current sources in Hong Kong are more export situation is grim. So the industry is called, must be in the off-season maintenance of stability in the domestic market, international market rebound after waiting for export transactions.

Rational view of the fall season

Urea prices bottomed out in early July to bring to market a trace of joy, but also shows the existence of demand for agricultural fertilizer. Shandong Union Sunde Liang, general manager of group sales that just five days time, Shandong mainstream prices rose by nearly 100 yuan / ton, in addition to the hype of factors, mainly driven by seasonal demand. "Although urea prices rose last week, but manufacturers generally ship better, although there are gas prices factors, but mainly by the summer corn fertilizer demand pull."

And into the second week of July, the price of urea rebound trend did not continue, but there has been finished lower. Sunde Liang believes that with the end of the first round of prepared fertilizer, urea prices to adjust, it is normal. "Export situation is not optimistic about the domestic enterprises to actively turn, but due to the dry weather, the first round of dealers stocking cycle it for 3-5 days, with the end of the stocking, price loss of support, down has become inevitable."

Chinese farmers agricultural chain Corporation General Manager Huang Xiaobing also believe that with the end of summer, the fertilizer, the recent decline in the price of urea is to be expected, but the downward trend will not last too long, the production company depends costs and international market conditions. "The current prices in accordance with the full cost, some companies have been operating at a loss, with the off-season and the decline in the price of urea industry's overall operating rate will be significantly reduced, the price will stabilize."

Export situation is still grim

Although 2013 has been relatively liberal export policies to alleviate the market interpreted the maximum positive domestic production capacity, but the actual situation, the current export situation remains grim. Sunde Liang said that from the Indian tender situation, is indeed intended to depress prices to win cheap sources. "India is the first tender prices, although low, but domestic enterprises would still be acceptable, but the second tender price is only $ 303.33 / ton, ex-factory price of urea Chinese translation only 1550 yuan / ton, which is the Chinese enterprises unacceptable, and therefore, the second tender price has not been recognized by domestic enterprises. "

Clearly India has the second tender prices far below production costs, and if the transaction, enterprises will loss. However, with the current port set up more than 300 tons of volume, Huang Xiaobing also looked very helpless. "Excess capacity in the context of international buyers take advantage of China's current export tariff policy to suppress prices in the export of the dawn will depress international prices, while domestic enterprises are still in the export of a large set in Hong Kong before, so completely in the export loss of the right to speak, the situation degenerated into trampled upon. "

To safeguard stability of domestic prices

Since the current export situation is grim, urea or should focus on domestic market changes. Sunde Liang said: "The current market really good lies in the goods market, do not go away rather than corporate factory price, whether it is 1700 yuan / ton, or 1,900 yuan / ton, if the market is stagnant, take the volume can not guarantee the normal operation of enterprises will be affected. now full cost of urea in 1850 yuan / ton, the cost of production in 1700 yuan / ton, that, according to current prices most companies have losses, but still maintain production, so the overall , the industry's operating rate is still high. "the face of the international market in the doldrums, Sunde Liang stressed that the current domestic enterprises or should control production in order to stabilize domestic prices to be dominated, only to stabilize domestic prices, with the international market in order to wait for fair and reasonable deal.

Huang Xiaobing also believes that only stabilize domestic prices, in order to ensure the interests of business. "The current international urea prices read a bit, complete with current international crude oil prices detachment, so the latter likely to rise, only to rebound in international prices, in order to promote exports, if domestic prices follow international prices, domestic enterprises interests will surely damage. "Meanwhile, Huang Xiaobing stressed that the current bearish market overcapacity serious amplified by the market, the market needs positive energy prices at the beginning of the season also proved a continuous process of decline in market demand is still there , primary market supply is not very plentiful.