Since April this year, the fertilizer market "stumble endlessly." In response to the current difficulties, calling for increased fertilizer market insight positive energy, positive energy, including the release fertilizer such exports, the media do not sing on an empty Chinese fertilizer production enterprises to limited production price and so on. As the fertilizer industry one, I add fertilizer market positive energy no objection, but a method for increasing positive energy hold some questions, discuss with you here:

I believe that the more relaxed fertilizer export tariff policy, fertilizer prices will fall more ruthless. DAP in the export window period after the arrival of fall is an obvious example, because we must rely on exports in the country to digest excess capacity in the case of export window period is longer, the more foreign investors do not rush getting goods through time exchange rates, foreign to grasp the initiative in the negotiations. Export prices in order to reverse the passive situation stumble endlessly, I think the positive energy market liberalization rather than just tighten fertilizer exports. Currently only shorten the window period or raise export tariffs on fertilizer exports, international fertilizer prices will surely believed crashed into the sky. Even if we are in the market to manufacture such rumors, perhaps good for exports, but the release fertilizer export requirements rampant, it may only give domestic and international fertilizer prices lead to further decline, so fertilizer export policy was tightened Currently the market is positive energy.

On public issues, even more debatable: First, to maintain an objective and impartial is the responsibility of the media, and this year is the increasing production of fertilizer varieties unavoidable fact, therefore emphasize the positive energy of public opinion can not be realistic, contrary to the media's responsibility. Second, public opinion on the impact of small fertilizer dealers largest media if he stubbornly evade the fact that once prices fall, these dealers will suffer the most. Third, even if the "positive voice" short-term maintenance of the market, but the problem is not resolved, a lot of "baggage" shall be postponed until the day will hit the market. Therefore, an objective analysis of the media market is the positive energy of the fertilizer market.

About limited production price, I found it difficult to do so. Production enterprises in the price of the channel, is facing a prisoner's dilemma-type game, to maximize the benefits to reach a collective solution is unlikely; Only in the course of prices, production companies will cooperate, which has long been for many years the price of urea fluctuations in validation. The only way to get rid of the prisoner's dilemma is to achieve free competition to monopolistic competition from the change did not come to that, we must respect the reality, rather than shouting slogans. Urea, diammonium more capacity is relatively fragmented, diammonium joint insured did not do, I believe not much urea is also strong.

China's fertilizer market reminiscent of the Warring States, but the lack of even the combined vertical and horizontal, to turn things around counselors. Art of War says: the army attack plan, followed by cutting pay, under siege. And we are now, it is the siege policy is applied too much. In this case, we analyze the market is the best tool for game theory. Thus, in addition to an ammonium domestic fertilizer prices, the decline in value may still have a larger space.