After a long slump, urea market has finally ushered in a wave of rising prices. Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places or larger, the current pricing factory in these areas are basically in 1600 yuan (ton price, the same below) or more, compared with the previous price low, mostly rose 50 yuan, some gains of up to 70 yuan. Analysis of the industry, this wave ofrising price of urea is caused by a variety of good. The personage inside course of study points out, the domestic market supply reduction, demand,market sales pressure decreases, prices.

The supply side, because of the early urea price is too low, some high costmanufacturers loss is bigger, a few enterprises were forced to stop production, some enterprises is to repair, so that the urea production of too rapid growth eased to some extent.

The export side, in accordance with the regulations, from the beginning of November 1st, urea high tariff period, low tariff urea can't enter the bonded area, but due to operational aspects, some port customs until November 10th or so, so there are a lot of urea into the bonded zone for export,reducing sales pressure manufacturers and domestic market supplypressure.

Lower demand, enter after November, fertilizer manufacturers gradually entered the winter storage and fertilizer production peak, the procurement of raw materials increased, increase the demand for urea and urea;massive reserves started. Two aspects of demand both start, coupled with the "buy or not to buy up" the psychological impact, speculative demanddealers increase, the improved obviously go urea market conditions of goods, some manufacturers began to control orders.

The international market, 10 months late, urea prices stabilized rebound,rebound has basically to more than $300, especially in the first week of November, recording, international urea prices across the board or to expand, the market appears to be strong. At present the market rumors,next year China's chemical fertilizer export tariff policy will adjust the export tariffs on season, urea will be substantially reduced, which in January next year urea export are possible, international urea prices leading role in the domestic market will be more obvious.

At the same time, raw materials prices to form a strong support for the urea market. More than 70% of urea is using coal as raw material, with the economic recovery and coal for the winter to increase, since October, coal prices began to rebound, and prices have the potential to expand. In addition, our country is part of urea enterprises to natural gas as raw materials, mainly in the southwest, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia,Liaoning etc.. At the recent 2013 natural gas peaks winter supplycoordination meeting, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission Lian Weiliang is expected this year, the national natural gas supply and demand gap of up to 22000000000 cubic meters(equivalent to almost 3 years in Beijing by volume). It is reported, at present, Xinjiang and other places of urea manufacturers supply tensionand head for parking, is expected to enter the December southwest area will also have gas head urea manufacturers have parking turns overhaul,for civilian gas.

But a lot of people in the industry said in an interview, the capacity of ureain China is too large, the apparent oversupply, from seasonal surplus tostructural surplus, especially the construction of a large number of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other large and low cost of urea, urea prices rosespace is significant compression. If urea prices rose too fast, or too large,this round of the market could be over.