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Natural gas prices in the long-term bullish oil honor short-term gains
Source:China Fertilizer Network   Time:2013-12-13   Read:708second  
Natural gas price reform program has issued nearly six months , while the effect of the gradual implementation of previews . China will strive to "five " at the end of the natural gas price adjustment in place, according to expert estimates , when domestic natural gas prices will rise nearly eight percent .
December 12 , the Economic Institute of Petroleum Technology Research Institute deputy director Dai oil market right in the seventh day the oil market in the exchange of research results related to stock movements
China Petroleum said on +0.000.00 8.01 % , with the implementation of China's reform of energy prices , the natural gas import price inversion phenomenon will be reduced gradually . Price estimates in accordance with standards , in 2015 China natural gas prices will increase 77 percent , compared to the price advantage gasoline and diesel will drop by about 30% , the price advantage of natural gas will be weakened .
Since China under strict control gas prices , so with the price and environmental advantages , the rapid growth of domestic consumption of natural gas , with an average annual growth rate over the total GDP and primary energy consumption. Data show that from 2000 to 2012 , China 's apparent consumption of natural gas from 24.5 billion cubic meters to 147.1 billion cubic meters , an average annual increase of 16.1% , significantly more than the total GDP 10.1% and energy consumption of the average annual growth rate of 7.9% . The same period , natural gas accounted for the proportion of total primary energy consumption from 2.2 % to 5.2%.
With consumption growth alone can not meet the demand of domestic natural gas , since 2006, China imported LNG ( liquefied natural gas ) . 2012 imports of 42.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas , an increase of 34.9%. Of which 22 billion cubic meters of gas pipelines , LNG imported 14.68 million tons , more than the first pipeline gas imports LNG, import dependence has risen to 28.8%.
While imported gas continues to increase , but the import price and the domestic gas market prices seriously upside down , resulting in a loss of oil and gas companies in the natural gas business seriously .
Dr. Petroleum Institute of Market Economy Research Institute of Petroleum Technology Wang Haibo said that at present in addition to the early CNOOC signed a long gas trade , the import pipeline gas and LNG prices are significantly higher than the local gate price , plus import VAT and gasification , pipelines and other expenses after facing a serious problem of losses imported gas , natural gas suppliers will affect the enthusiasm and reliability of supply .
" Imported to Jiangsu Province , in 2012 LNG import price of 4.16 yuan / cubic meter ; while the city gate price as low as 2.42 yuan / cubic meter "王海博said. In addition, China Petroleum (601857.SH) natural gas import business losses in 2012 41.9 billion yuan , equivalent to 36% of net profit .
June 28, 2013 , the NDRC issued the " National Development and Reform Commission on the adjustment of gas prices ," which started the program since July 10, 2013 . The idea is to adjust the one hand , to distinguish between gas and incremental gas stocks , incremental step adjustment to the gas prices and fuel oil , liquefied petroleum gas ( weights were 60 % and 40% ) and other alternative energy sources to maintain a reasonable level of parity ; another On the one hand , the stock of gas price adjustment step , strive to " twelve Five" adjustment in place .
Since the price adjustment in July , its effect has also been reflected in the results of the initial domestic oil and gas companies . First three quarters of 2013 , China 's oil and gas and pipeline segment operating profit 23.438 billion yuan , 885 million yuan over the previous year 's increase of 22.553 billion yuan , an increase of reason which includes the introduction of natural gas price adjustment programs .
Eastern oil and gas network analyst Cheng Ruifeng "First Financial Daily" reporters said that as a non- residential natural gas prices increased , the amount of the national environmental protection requirements resulting in increased use of natural gas and petroleum pipelines in the southwest increases and other factors, there are different degrees in other business segments profitability when dropped , the natural gas business will be the largest of its future profit growth .
Over the past ten years, the rapid growth of China's natural gas consumption is increasing environmental pressure by the rapid economic development , transportation network is imperfect, long-term price advantage and other factors driven . Future economic growth slowed , the price advantage of weakened background , promote environmental protection will become a major force in the growth of natural gas demand .
Economic Research Institute of Petroleum Technology report showed that natural gas demand will continue to grow , accounting for primary energy continues to rise . Under the baseline scenario , in 2015 , 2020 and 2030, demand for natural gas was 205.9 billion cubic meters , 306.4 billion cubic meters and 466.9 billion cubic meters , accounting for the proportion of the total consumption of primary energy were 6.4 %, 8.5% , and 11.9 %.
However,王海博also introduced China's natural gas price reform also needs to address in depth the stock of gas and incremental gas dual pricing system , linked with alternative energy is reasonable, timely and accurate conductivity how several major issues , such as market supply and demand signals .
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