Recent international market price of urea on the rise, on India in the New Year may have heard rumors tender , we are very concerned about the international market. In the domestic urea overcapacity , a serious shortage of confidence in the market and the season export tariffs decline , the international market as the domestic urea market benchmark , hoping to boost the international market prices of the domestic market seems to be a matter of course , but I think at least before March , the possibility of the international market to boost domestic urea market is unlikely.

Prices of agricultural products to some extent determines the price of fertilizer . Extensive use of foreign farm planting futures to hedge risks , and therefore decrease the adjustment of agricultural futures prices and acreage planted structure has a great guide. Since late last year , major international agricultural futures prices continue to decline : January 10 , wheat, soybeans, corn , respectively, to close at $ 5.69,12.78,4.31 CBOT / bushel , down nearly 40% , fertilizer prices are also synchronized diving. CBOT prices of major agricultural products from the forward looking downturn will last until the harvest season of the year. Can be inferred that the international fertilizer market in the first half of this year is certainly not a strong demand for the year , I hope the international market prices rose sharply to boost domestic urea prices does not seem realistic .

In addition to China , the globalization trend urea production natural gas as feedstock. Very unfavorable , the leaps and bounds of the United States to subvert the natural gas shale gas and oil prices linked to the mechanism , making the cost of coal-based urea , carbon emissions and environmental increasingly disadvantageous position . Last year due to high costs and low price of only Ukraine was forced to stop production of urea production enterprises, but last December 17 , Russia announced significantly lower natural gas prices to Ukraine to $ 268.5 / thousand cubic meters, equivalent to only 1.64 yuan / cubic meter of natural gas is equivalent to the cost of urea is only 1000 yuan / ton. This positive impact , due to cost issues in September last year, was forced to stop production of urea Ukrainian enterprises have resumed production. It is foreseeable that in the export of urea , China is bound to encounter supply capacity increase, but the declining price competitiveness plight through export-led domestic market is becoming increasingly unrealistic .

Currently Port Free Trade Zone of domestic deposits of around 950,000 tons of urea in history is a very high level. There are such a big amount of urea deposits in Hong Kong , even though the Indian tender , even though no new urea set in Hong Kong , I am afraid that the international urea prices are unlikely to increase .

Through the above analysis, I guess the recent rise in the international price of urea is not the main reason for the increase in demand and lack of supply , but rather the international market to fully grasp the Chinese people have had the traditional Spring Festival . We can say that after a month's time , Chinese people are busy Chinese New Year, this time to determine the ability of China's urea supply weakest time , the international market took the opportunity to take advantage of rising prices be timing and location , we do not easily drawn international urea prices have started to rebound conclusions .

Urea export tariff policy easing this year , with the possibility of making the export season , the domestic urea market is undoubtedly a major positive, but good at the same time , companies are facing greater pressure. 12 months a year , has the possibility of exports, how export ? This is a test of the international companies to take advantage of market power . For two years, the domestic enterprises in the export of urea turned full tuition , hopefully in the new year , urea exports do not appear big storm.