A partial rebound to conceal the downward trend

Since April, the price of urea maintain downward trend, but the local prices rebounded slightly. The general manager of Dezhou Xinfeng fertilizer Co., Ltd. Liu Liqing told reporters: "at present in the fertilizer off-season, agriculture needs light, but the Shandong area urea ex factory price fell to 1400 yuan / ton, prices rebounded slightly. Investigate its reason: one is to start in the near future rate decreased. Both small and large businesses, the current market price has been a loss or not to make money, so can only passive shutdown for maintenance, which reduces the supply in certain extent. The two is the export port demand pull. Although the price in the international market has not improved, but because companies are reluctant to base risk completely, so the rather low set port, but also to lower prices in the domestic market pattern of destruction."

For the afternoon, Liu Liqing said the rosy. "On the one hand, with China's exports of urea continues to increase, the international market will be difficult to turn for the better, so expect exports to domestic prices bottoming out little possibility; on the other hand, although the overall urea industry operating rate declined to a certain extent, stable prices, but because of the coal price is still in decline therefore, domestic enterprises can not be long-term production, short production maintenance will not affect the urea market supply and demand pattern.

Urea market can be said to be not only lower the minimum. Although the prices of most enterprises have losses, but due to overcapacity pattern has not changed, so the current price has not bottomed out. Although urea prices below 1400 yuan / ton after bottoming out, but the current domestic market downturn clinch a deal the pattern has not changed, part of the high-end prices are still in decline, can be said to urea industry has entered a dangerous period, only to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, to ensure the stable development of the industry.

Coal down

Increased risk of urea market outlook

Recently, the domestic media focused on Shanxi coal prices, the reason is entered since 2014, Shanxi coal enterprises operating condition is quite difficult, but still managed to maintain production.

In this regard, Shanxi Jincheng anthracite coal mining group and economic operation division director Jia Hongbin said: "the domestic coal prices have dropped to freezing point, the first major Shanxi coal prices have been at a loss, if the previous enterprises can rely on the scale of the production costs down, the establishment of advantages, so from the beginning of this year, this advantage has all gone. Under the market economy, market demand is the most weight, the domestic coal market is shrinking, the survival of the coal enterprises face enormous challenges. Countries from the policy level support, we really can bring many benefits for the coal enterprises. But in the face of coal prices continued to decline, even if the government continues to coal industry to intensify efforts to rescue the market, is still a sense of not from the heart. This year, Shanxi coal enterprise management situation continues to worsen, the first 2 months, Shanxi coal industry losses amounted to 4020000000 yuan."

As the main raw material for the production of urea, coal prices below the cost of urea market as a head-on blow. Last year, coal prices stable, urea market to remain calm, and in this year, the coal market downturn has spread to the urea industry. Since last year, the domestic gas head enterprise a huge, some of this year's coal enterprises also announced production limiting stop head. Jia Hongbin said: "from the current status of domestic production enterprises, the overall operating rate up to 70%, and even though it is at a low utilization rate of urea, domestic supply is still adequate. From the analysis of this point, to stop production phenomenon will continue in a short period of time."

Last year the domestic non agricultural natural gas prices, the impact on the domestic gas head enterprise. But in fact, the real test is still this year. Non agricultural natural gas prices this year several to be a foregone conclusion, the market is expected to increase will not be less than 0.4 yuan / cubic meters, if the information is correct, then most of the domestic gas head of urea enterprises will face shutdown crisis.

Throughout the domestic urea industry, industrial layout has been completed. At present, the core capacity of urea concentration in North China, central China, East China, new capacity is concentrated in the Northwest region. The northwest also bear the high pressure in the freight enjoy advantages of raw materials at the same time, because the price of preferential policies, the northwest of urea in the domestic market remains competitive. But once the preferential price to cancel, northwest of urea enterprises geographically weaknesses highlight undoubtedly, but the traditional urea production technology leading, at the same time close to the consumer market, two-phase offset, domestic urea enterprises will be likely to maintain a delicate balance. Trace the development of domestic urea industry in recent years, the industry is the principle of survival of the fittest for screening of the market, while the battle of survivors will be the strongest, most has the vitality of a batch of enterprises. Capacity to return to rational, the enterprise competition, only in this way, the urea industry can be healthy, can the stability.