After a six months of decline, urea and finally to a continuous rise in the. In or long after, we are not in the gloomy atmosphere in Huanguo God, manufacturers and dealers to take the goods price is with great care. Is this the urea price is really?

-- new capacity into production without. Although the second half of last year, a large number of urea new capacity put into production, but the statistical data shows, this year 1~4 month national urea production of 23390000 tons, 0.23% less than the same period last year, in the case of urea prices continue downward, loss making enterprises increased, the exchange capacity (small business production), transformation of product structure (of synthetic ammonia and methanol), to increase the production capacity of urea did not translate into increased production. From an overall point of view is to reduce the supply, which laid a foundation for the rising price of urea.

-- export and market demand growth. From the demand perspective, high nitrogen fertilizer, urea formation instead of ammonium chloride, ammonium chloride caused the rare historical downturn (of course, ammonium chloride downturn is not only this one reason), confirms that the rise of agriculture of urea dosage.

One can use the data to illustrate the demand growth from exports, this year 1~4 month China Urea Export 3270000 tons more than the same period last year 2200000 tons, export is expected 5~6 month compared with the same period last year will continue to maintain a larger growth, incremental 1~6 exports of at least 3000000 tons, equivalent to more than half of the domestic months of production, thus greatly ease the domestic supply pressure.

In fact, it is in the above two factors, domestic urea has appeared in short supply situation. But in the early decline under the shadow, the real relationship between supply and demand has been covered, in the case of rigid demand for the release, urea prices will become inevitable.

The biggest attraction is the urea export window period after the price trend, the international market in the past two years by the

Short Chinese urea with great success, especially in India, to take tender not quantitative pressure China prices, resulting in international and domestic market circulation fell. Author bold prediction, this year the export window period, the international market short strategy will fail.

Chinese Urea Export Analysis for many years, the author thinks that the effect on the domestic market or international market is to maltreat an injured person, either is the icing on the cake, I will be timely assistance situation! Domestic urea price bottom, then exports would boost domestic prices; domestic urea prices not bottom, then exports will promote domestic prices.

Current domestic urea inventory is low is an indisputable fact, we can not imagine in July 6, Chinese traditional urea season, a mere two months production can not be digested (even if the high nitrogen overdrawn urea consumption), so the rigid demand of home is enough to support the country in July 6, the price of. In the domestic price support, business negotiation China export enterprises like lacking spirit of cooperation have emboldened, prices will not loose, thus forcing the international market acceptance Chinese price, to form a circulation increases the icing on the cake.

Support two other reasons this judgment is urea port low inventory and prices at historic lows. The first two years of a lot to set port caused foreign buyers short China market repeatedly succeed. This year, the Hong Kong stock urea is less than half of last year, although not high, but the situation is not expected to be killing each other. Urea prices low will also cause other countries to urea production low profit or shut down, so that the international market supply reduction, lay the export window period after the price cycle.

If the export forecast accuracy, it can increase that the urea is true, and there is sustainable.