In mid June, domestic urea market has experienced since the Dragon Boat Festival this week almost 10 days of rising prices. Objective evaluation of the urea hunters, the author thinks that in operation there is no right or wrong definition after all agricultural summer fertilizer appeared just need, market inventory shortage is the fact, businessmen chasing natural reason. In addition, the domestic price of urea rebound is reflected in the domestic manufacturers for the operation of export structure. In order to compete for the international market pricing power of discourse, must increase and strong urea FOB quotation.

Agricultural demand difficult market contradictions. Relying on domestic agricultural summer fertilizer urea prices start, is better, the downstream market volume increased significantly, the ex factory price is rising rapidly. North China, East China enterprises urea mainstream quotation reached 1480-1550 yuan / ton. And this is equal or lower than the production cost of urea prices in the week after the judgment was substantially increases with risk. Perhaps between reality and recognized there are always some contradictions. There are risks to the upside down costs of judgment should come from two aspects: the first is the inertial attitude on urea market long-term downturn; a panic the businesses wary of Inner Mongolia, super low urea supply. Obviously, one side is urea market outlook uncertain, one side is unknown low-cost competitors, lack of chance to delivery. At this point, the dealer can do just wait and see. In addition, the domestic compound fertilizer plant are raw material purchase demand, but because of urea price shocks, the order quantity is affected, high nitrogen expected sales is not clear, so that the compound fertilizer factory had to postpone the delivery, it is difficult to form a procurement support on urea. In short, the current domestic circulation and downstream users of the main contradiction is "confidence" two words.

Export dependent crack game contradiction. After the domestic enterprises urea prices, large components are understood to be on the export of the contention of the discourse power. After all, we can see that in order to cope with the India bidding, the international market prices are remain strong countries. In June 12th FMB small particles urea urea reference: China offshore rose to 260-262 U. s.dollars / ton, Baltic FOB US $298-305 / ton, FOB 305 U. S. dollars / tons of black sea. In view of this, India tendering support urea prices to a certain extent, but the international market is still the problem of excess supply, the bidding itself may also be a process of bidding. As for our country, since the July implementation of the export tax rate of urea off-season, production enterprises down this part of the profits tax will bring for, to rely on the price and international buyers of the game. However, as the saying: "the ideal is very plump, reality very bone." Domestic manufacturers in the sales pressure, difficult to conceal their plight. To meet the pressing demand for exports seem to have gone beyond the game attitude, strong price will collapse of itself.

To make a long story short, domestic urea market because of lack of confidence, and have the possibility to continue stalled in. At present, India bidding still lead the price game of international market, China manufacturers if the FOB US $260 / ton export, it is upside down. At this time, can only hope that other exporters can get higher price. However, international traders once again that the inventory in our port of small particles urea of more than 1000000 tons, and intends to demand purchasing, this means that the domestic manufacturers are likely to passive acceptance of low-priced exports, and even some industry forecasts China final urea FOB price is 250 yuan / ton. Though this is not what we want to see, however, later international urea was judged to be a buyer's market, FOB to "good news". Nearly half a month since, domestic urea price rise alternately, from which we can see manufacturers helpless operating attitude, can see the way downstream businesses cautious. However, the contradiction is to let a person feel sad.