"The second half of this year the price of urea is difficult to rebound sharply, exports are also not much space to improve, enterprises should do a good job of preparing to fight a protracted war." In 2014 July 2nd, China international nitrogen fertilizer, methanol conference of the fertilizer market forum, participants expressed the opinion to the reporter.

According to Chinese Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry Association statistics, by the end of 2013 the total capacity of 80700000 tons of urea, the first half of 2014 new capacity 1600000 tons, shutting down 2300000 tons, total production capacity of 700000 tons of reduction. In the overall operating rate was lower, the first half of 2014 the urea production volume is expected to 32974000 tons, year-on-year reduction of 0.1%. The capacity and output of both decline, domestic urea prices are anomalous downturn. The delegates think, the fundamental reason is the lack of market confidence, the cistern role circulation and agricultural demand growth slowed down.

High nitrogen fertilizer association director of information and market department said, popularize scientific fertilization to nitrogenous fertilizer is less and less, the future growth of agriculture on the nitrogen fertilizer demand will slow down. In the fertilizer distribution, like fertilizer crops accounted for only 39%, while the higher fertilizer requirements of rationality of economic crops accounted for 61%, this also makes the demand for urea reduction.

Deputy general manager of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical Co. Ltd., Zhang Hanqing thinks, urea as compound fertilizer raw materials, its dosage is squeezed ammonium chloride, ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate. Deputy general manager of Henan xinlianxin fertilizer Co., Zhao Lianzi said, as the consumption of resources based products, urea is not a large number of long-term low-priced exports, if prices remain low, will inevitably affect the exports, so exports urea promotion space is very limited.

According to the analysis of the British 英特杰 Co. Ltd. senior fertilizer analyst Stephen Duke, by raw materials and technical limitations, Chinese urea production costs are relatively high, the profit level of the enterprise also is low. The British Institute of goods (CRU) nitrogen analysis manager Alist Wallace also believe that, within the next 4 years the world will add production capacity of 57000000 tons, especially the rapid expansion America cheap shale gas fertilizer production project, will suppress the international fertilizer prices, and then squeeze share China urea in the international market.

For synthetic ammonia and urea demand DeNOx industry concerns, the Deputy Secretary General of CEC energy-saving environmental protection branch hairy only think, look for a long time this demand will release a lot, but this depends on the policy regulation, also be introduced the relevant standards, the supply and demand sides form the norms and constraints.

Nitrogen Fertilizer Association honorary chairman Liu Shulan remind enterprise, the urea supply and demand is expected to be tight balance, the current domestic circulation stock at a low point, the second half of the year, exports of agricultural and industrial demand concentrated release, there are still a lot of uncertain factors affecting market.