Recently, in 2014 China international nitrogen fertilizer, methanol conference, from the International Fertilizer Industry Association and the international fertilizer market analysis of the nitrogenous fertilizer market supply and demand situation and future prospects are analyzed agency experts. The reporter learned from the meeting, 5 years of international nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand will maintain a certain growth, and the excess capacity that will tend to increase. In this case, China n weak position in international trade, it is very difficult to reverse, this will be an important factor in Daobi Chinese nitrogenous fertilizer industry depth adjustment.

According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) forecasts, from 2013 to 2018, the global nitrogen fertilizer consumption will be the overall increase of 7%, an average annual increase of 1.5%. The global nitrogen effective capacity within 5 years will increase by 28000000 tons, 34000000 tons of urea supply growth, an increase of 3.8%.

According to the British yingjiete Co. Ltd. senior analyst Stephen Duke of the view of nitrogen fertilizer, in the price cost driver stage, and is closely related to energy prices. This means that the low energy to become the biggest driving force for the development of nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore, with the development of cheap shale gas in North America, with cost advantage will become an important market for nitrogen capacity expansion. According to statistics, there are 26 investors interested in American investing.

And Chinese nitrogen mainly anthracite as raw material. Stephen Duke offerred data shows, because the raw materials are different, and the more spare capacity, China nitrogenous fertilizer production cost is in the high position in the international fertilizer cost curve, which means that corporate profits at a low level.

Data shows, America cost urea production is only about 60% of the Chinese; while in possession of abundant and cheap oil and gas resources in the Middle East, the production cost of urea is only about 40% of the Chinese. Resources to bring cost pressures will pose a great challenge for the development of Chinese nitrogenous fertilizer industry.

Especially this year, Yuzhnyy urea FOB price to $300 (ton price, the same below), reached the lowest point in recent years. Recently, India urea tender CIF appeared low of $266, equivalent to Chinese urea enterprise ex factory price is highest do not exceed 1300 yuan. In this case, the average cost of production Chinese compared with urea, the majority of enterprises are the loss.

CRU nitrogen analysis manager Alist Wallace thinks, this situation has decided Chinese n although the export volume is large, but the nitrogen fertilizer business is not a price maker, is also impossible to keep the price of export situation for a long time.

The next few years, by multiple factors, the international fertilizer prices also difficult to ascend. One is the global overcapacity will suppress prices; two 2014 may appear "El Nino", climate change will bring greater impact on agricultural production, is not conducive to nitrogen release of market demand; three is the North American cheap shale gas development, will pull low nitrogen fertilizer production cost.