The export price of urea is expected to support the consolidation
Source:China fertilizer Author:Yang Luyi Time:2014-09-18 Read:621second
Around the India urea tender topic, the industry can not say entanglements has been a long time, but at least in the export of attitude do have several transformation. Speaking from the first round of bidding before the June India foreign malicious short China urea; nitrogen CO to subsequent boycott urea low export initiative, makes India bidding frustrated; followed by a round of India bidding, urea FOB was game increases, but the international market Jan Huojin price, ultimately failed to meet the procurement needs of India. After the defeat of the two bid, the trend of rising international price of urea helpless recognized traders. At the same time, India and other urea importer demand also gained the attention of industry, especially in India called the third urea bidding, plans to purchase quantity is 100-150 million tons, compared with the previous two bid, the bidder should do not blindly to keep the prices down, but as far as possible, offer a reasonable price to get orders. Of course, by the India bidding good news international support, small granular urea prices since mid August to early September rise all the way, mainstream offshore quotes from 315-320 dollars (ton price below) rose to $335-340. China's small granular urea FOB quotation from $280-285 $290-295 report. From the quotation or point of view, the international mainstream quotation was significantly higher than that of China, but before the author has analyzed, considering the "short board effect", the country of export price also pull up our quotation purpose, after all, at this stage whether from the price or amount of goods, China export is an important factor in determining the international urea prices trend, I believe we all know this. Accordingly, urea strong international quotation, also gives our country brought more export opportunities, domestic manufacturers are also regain confidence. According to the author to understand, from the end of August to early September, the port will have a partial orders of $290 offshore reach. Along with our country last week (September 11th) urea FOB price hike of $290-295, the industry have expressed approval.
The domestic price of modest consolidation
Although the export has been of concern to the industry, but because of repeated changes expected bullish or bearish, plus domestic demand off-season no good support, on exports is also expected to become judge vane domestic prices rise "". Up to early September, domestic urea prices have shown a decline, but have been slowed down. Shandong, Hebei and other places of ex factory price of urea amplitude is only 10-20 yuan / ton. And benefit from the India third bid is expected, if the US $290 / ton FOB backward domestic North urea ex factory price can be combined to 1550-1580 yuan / ton. This can let this week urea manufacturers offer a slightly raised. The international market continued to firm offer, keep the game attitude. At least from the current situation can be seen, no more progress in India tender conditions, the domestic price of urea can only temporary consolidation wait-and-see. In addition, due to the current our country is in the use of fertilizer off-season, downstream autumn preparing fertilizer mood is not high, the demand for urea terminal market is extremely limited; although part of compound fertilizer enterprises Procurement improved slightly, but the overall domestic urea pressure still can not be ignored.
China still needs to continue the game India tendering
According to foreign media reports, last week the small granular urea trend was better than the large granular urea, and the reason I am afraid that originated from the tightening of supply and demand. The demand side, the India MMTC company announced the end of the third round of bidding work, during the week of shipment: November 10th, procurement of more than 1000000 tons. Recent published at the same time plus other procurement in the procurement plan, the total demand of 2000000 tons or over. The supply side, the Black Sea and Baltic Sea due to tight supply, small granular urea FOB quotation rose to 340 U.S. dollars / ton. Thus, China prilled urea will remain India's main source of procurement. I'm afraid this is before the India fertilizer and the Ministry of chemical industry, the Embassy of India, India fertilizer association, IPL, MMTC, STC and other departments a six to Beijing talks reason. As for meeting long-term cooperation and transparent bidding proposal called the argument, the author can only say go see. And for the forthcoming India tendering, perhaps is the key to achieve consensus of the talks, if the bidding result in favor of India, then it will be the so-called "one wish, two principles, three suggestions" I'm afraid to The coming days would be long..
To sum up, with the India bid results published this week, the international market will also gradually clear. Although the existence of intense argument of supply and demand, but supply into the city Chinese mitigation of the effects should not be ignored. The Indian side to Beijing after the talks are not eager to adjust the way the tender. In other words, India is still going to take this week's tender results to consider whether to further cooperation with China in the late. At present, domestic manufacturers to export new single is not much, the domestic pressure is still large, industrial fertilizer procurement support co.. No matter the factory or dealer wants to catch the multi outlet as far as possible in the off-season tariff window period before the end of the. In the current market environment and the influence of this kind of psychology, game export prices will gradually bearish, price ceiling single situation also will be increased, and the expected fob the majority will be maintained at 290 dollars / ton up and down. Therefore, short-term domestic urea prices temporarily stabilized.