Based on the analysis of traditional logic framework, the price of coal is expected to usher in a rebound cycle: postganglionic line maintenance soon, plus early limited production and control import policy is expected to starting to take effect in October, help the industry chain rapidly to inventory; after October, hydropower is expected to enter the dry season, the north the temperature drops, the downstream industry Dongchu coal into inventory replenishment cycle is expected to pull the coal demand, we expect the festival is about to enter the coal price rebound cycle.